Suggestion: The Powerhouse Weapons Case #94 at 12–15 ref

Price Suggestion

~1.8 keys

#94

177 votes up

140 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Thu, 16 Jul 15 14:32:19 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

The decline in hype continues. Trying to keep these up to date again, since it seems I'm the only one updating pricing on these all the time...

With the number being bought every day, I think that even a couple days unsold means that the current range is too high, and there are PLENTY of sellers under 1 key now.

Outpost sellers / unsolds;

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26452420 - 1 key 2 ref unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26474829 - 1 key 2 ref unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26472824 - 1 key 6 ref unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26472351 - 1 key unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26456819 - 1 key 6 ref unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26478279 - Under 1 key (refined) young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26478117 - 1 key - young unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26385183 - 1 key - young unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26479974 - 1 key - young unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26479847 - 1 key - young unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26479524 - 1 key - young unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26479393 - 1 key - young unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26479524 - 1 key - young unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26480095 - 12 ref - young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26480161 - 11 ref - young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26480202 - 12 ref - young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26480226 - 12 ref - young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26450448 - 16 ref - young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26480571 - 12 ref - young

Classifieds;

http://s11.postimg.org/vfdx47e4j/proof_crate.jpg

1 @ 11 ref

1 @ 11.33

1 @ 12

1 @ 13

4 @ 15

26 @ 1 key

I am taking 1 key out of the range, because of scm pricing and there are so many for sale for less. Taking anything under 12 refined to be a 'quicksale', giving us a range of 12-15 refined. Nice and tight. Noticing already today that 1 key sellers are reducing to 15 refined. Again, with the number of cases being bought/sold, unsold for even a day or two means that price is no longer working.

Steam community market agrees with this range -

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/The%20Powerhouse%20Weapons%20Case

http://s12.postimg.org/ob53usg99/proof_crate2.jpg

Keys are $3.15 CDN, with 261 sold at ~ $2.25 and all current sales happening at under 1 key.

This suggestion may have to be redone in a couple days, maybe sooner. But since the current range is obviously too high already, this needed adjusting. Leave any constructive comments or criticisms below.

All of your proof for 12 is young.

Where is your proof for 15?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26478279 - Under 1 key (refined) young --- has no set price, can't use

see classifieds on bp.tf for 15 ref sellers

SCM sales for 12 ref (slightly less than .75 keys) = 261

12 hours later...

current classies;

pg 1

http://s3.postimg.org/oomrcy9zn/proof_phcratepg1.jpg

pg 2

http://s28.postimg.org/ewg0zr0wt/proof_phcratepg2.jpg

http://imgur.com/qvDY3xA 1 key + 8 ref

UPDATE:

as the day goes on, more and more sellers between 12-15 refined. LOADS of proof now. Upvote quick :)

http://s17.postimg.org/ctjgwab5b/proof_crate5.jpg

see for yourself.

http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=The+Powerhouse+Weapons+Case&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1&numeric=crate&comparison=eq&value=94

http://s9.postimg.org/fa0uxk17j/proof_crate6.jpg

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/The%20Powerhouse%20Weapons%20Case

with over 2000 sold in the last 12 hours within this range on SCM, this is undeniable proof. haters gonna hate, but it is what it is

it's not a decline in hype so much as a sudden influx of supply. contracts seem to get released on Wed and Sat. and that's when prices dip. then they climb a little until the next contract release day.

imho you should recheck these on Thursday/Sunday for more accurate pricing.

I understanf that, as I've watched these sales quite closely. Refer to the SCM graph.

http://s12.postimg.org/ob53usg99/proof_crate2.jpg

I left 15 ref as the top because of this fact. I think it's an appropriate range for now. It will need revisiting on Friday or Saturday for sure, but the sales never recover after drops in this crates history. Current range is too high. Too many unsolds at even a key or 1 key 2 ref

SCM sales are currently on the low end of this, i do expect some recovery, but likely not above 1 key :)

edit: watching the recent activity feed on SCM for 5 minutes, there are litterally 100+ being listed under .75 keys

totally agree they are too high and they never do recover completely. just pointing out that Wed and Sat are the big drop days.

good work on these.

nothing at 15 from outpost?

with thousands upon thousands of these being bought and sold on SCM, it seems the majority of the action is happening there and not in steam trades of any kind. Classifieds support the pricing. Outpost listing mainly prove unsolds after a time.

i was asking because there are 11 pages on outpost and if you couldn't find anything at 15 ref, i don't understand why would that be the most common trading point

1 key are going unsold. there are sellers at 15 ref. 15 ref isn't the most common trading point, its the high point

if you're including it in your range, you're suggesting that there are sellers at that price, but i'm barely seeing any

http://s2.postimg.org/s5xw2a7x5/proof_crate3.jpg

all unbumped: http://i.imgur.com/AcOzbPg.png

current classies;

pg 1

http://s3.postimg.org/oomrcy9zn/proof_phcratepg1.jpg

pg 2

http://s28.postimg.org/ewg0zr0wt/proof_phcratepg2.jpg

seems like a lot of sellers below 15 ref, unless you have sales at 15 ref i don't understand why it's in the range

forgot about this one http://imgur.com/7Yni4G4 . same price as before

link didnt work fo me

should work now

that was so yesterday lol i have proof i bought one for 10 ref, but that doesn't make it common :)

http://s23.postimg.org/lxylqkryj/proof_crate4.jpg

i believe a 10 ref buy from a seller advertising at 15 refined easily counters your sale

that wasn't SO yesterday. it was actually yesterday. and there are sales, not sale

where is your proof of this? i have supplied plenty of sellers, sales, and backed it up by scm market. more than enough to set it at the suggested range. there are always going to be outliers, especially on a new item that people are not familiar with pricing on. Exactly y I am striving so hard to keep these updated, so that fair market pricing is reflected in backpack.tf pricing. Yesterday the new contracts weren't handed out and there wasn't a 1000 new crates in game. Today is a whole new world again.

UPDATED:

as the day progresses... loads more sellers between 12-15 refined

http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=The+Powerhouse+Weapons+Case&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1&numeric=crate&comparison=eq&value=94

http://s17.postimg.org/ctjgwab5b/proof_crate5.jpg

Still think I'm out of line here??

chill m8 http://i.imgur.com/4E4UOYo.png

wait 1 day or more and price will go up again

CDN price of key is $3.15 . $3.15x.75= ~$2.75 (.75 keys ~ 12 ref)

http://s23.postimg.org/cwbvzb24r/proof_crate7.jpg

SCM is not what i used to come up with this price range, it is sellers, unsolds, and sold on classifieds and outpost. Market is just used as supplemental proof. I don't have a crystal ball to see into the future, nor am I going to speculate. I am sure the price will need to be revisited in a few days, but CURRENT market is what backpack.tf pricing is based on. It's early, 1 day later. I'm keeping a good eye on the sales. If my range is wrong I'm more than glad to close this suggestion, but it's still right on.

currently 2 pages of sellers on bp.tf classifieds for betwen 12-15 refined.

http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=The%20Powerhouse%20Weapons%20Case&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1&numeric=crate&comparison=eq&value=94&page=1

http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=The%20Powerhouse%20Weapons%20Case&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1&numeric=crate&comparison=eq&value=94&page=2

(gettin tired of proving, go see for yourslf lol)

well, you have to wait, since almost all your listed trades are young. also, http://imgur.com/92qapYg - still above your suggested range.

PS: most (if not all) of your 12 ref outpost sellers quicksold in less than 1 day. bummer

checking a few backpack histories I'm finding that there aren't actual trades made for some of the 'sold' ones, so it's safe to say after people didn't sell after a few hours or even a day that they must have sold their cases on the market. it's a judgement call for the blackbelts to make. the facts are that many were listed on classifieds with b/o amounts within my suggested range and that would cap their sale at that amount in any case. Since market sales values are within my range, it is still a valid suggestion. Current range is too high quite obviously. Anyone have a better range and proof feel free to open your own counter-suggestion instead of nit-picking mine. Damn near all sales of this case are sold within a day or 2 of them getting them, so define quicksale for an item that's so hot and new and people want to dump before price drops more. Your 1 key sale image may be a quicksale too, while others from last week's drop remain unsold at 1 key. Depends on how actively you're trying to sell. It's all relative.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26480095 - 12 ref - QS

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26480161 - 11 ref - QS

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26480202 - 12 ref - QS

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26480226 - 12 ref - QS

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26480571 - 12 ref - QS

classifieds are also no good for your low end since you need 10+ sellers at a given price.

maybe current range is too high, but yours is no better.

I took out the 10 and 11 ref sellers already out of the equation as being the 'quicksale' price. there are buyers at 10 ref only on classies. That's why I went with 12-15 ref.

i showed you that salles over 1 key are happening, i showed you that your low end is a quicksell. you can do whatever you want with that info, i'm out.

Based on SCM and classifieds, this is pretty close. Sales have been provided in comments.