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Two trades on classifieds, both are 10 keys
http://i.imgur.com/68R0JF6.png
Two trades on outpost
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26429476 (same person in classifieds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26272141 wants offers, one offer of 7 keys
One gifted on steam market for $19 (around 7.6 keys)
http://i.imgur.com/F2WEcDf.png
I think you need a 15% change if using only Buyouts as proof.
You probably need to find some sales.
Correct. I probably wouldn't even bother with B/O drops on hats this value.
As already mentioned, dropping based on b/o alone will require at least a 15% change as shown on the guidelines http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/
This doesn't fulfil the criteria of dropping based on b/o alone. You will need sales for this. Closing this.