First suggestion took 27 days ¯\_( ｡ ヮﾟ)_/¯

-------Sale #1--------

Sold with a Fountain of Delight Battin' a Thousand for Scorching Festive Tree

Seller's bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012414439?time=1434783600

Seller's bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012414439?time=1435215600

Tree ~ 111 keys*0.9 = 99.9 ~ 100 keys

(100) - (31.5) = 69.5 ~ 70 keys

Mini for Fountain Battin'

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5584f986dea9e90f288b45dc

37 keys -> 30-33 (31.5)

Special notes about the sale, at the same time several keys go through Odd's backpack. These keys have histories unrelated to the trade in question.

This trade is deemed an outlier as specified at the bottom:

---------Sale #2---------

Sold for DP Medic's Mountain Cap + DBD Your Worst Nightmare + MN Brown Bomber + Bubbling Whirly Warrior + Orbiting Planets Burning Bandana + Blizzardy Storm El Jefe + G Fetti Bonk Helm.

Seller's bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991783701?time=1435474800

Seller's bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991783701?time=1435561200

(20)*0.9= 18 - mini price

(38)*0.9= 34.2 ~ 34 - updated

(54)*0.9= 48.6 ~ 49 - mini price

(12.5)*0.9= 11.25 ~ 11 - updated

(15)*0.9= 13.5 ~ 13 - mini price

(21.5)*0.9= 19.35 ~ 19 - updated

(18)*0.9=16.2 ~ 16 - mini price

Totaled: 160 keys

------Minis for sale #2-------

DP Medic's Mountain Cap

Very few sales, last priced at 18-28 ~ 22.5 keys

Seller has b/o of 20 keys

Taking b/o of 20 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26233393

---------------------------------

MN Brown Bomber

Sold with a Bubbling Grimm Hat for a Blizzardy Storm Killer's Exclusive.

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111273937?time=1435302000

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111273937?time=1435388400

(69) - (15) = 54 keys

Mini for Bubbling Grimm Hat

Very few sales, last priced at 14-19 ~ 16.5 keys

Seller has b/o of 15

Taking b/o of 15 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26318865

---------------------------------

Green Confetti Bonk Helm

Outdated at 17 keys, others on market are duped/haven't sold in a long time.

Sold for 18 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25667631

---------------------------------

Orbiting Planets Burning Bandana

Outdated price by about a month at 15 keys, hard to find accurate sales or any on the market, so we'll use a buyout.

Recent trade with b/o of 15 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25811277

---------Sale #3---------

Sold for a Burning Mountebank's Masque

Seller's Bp Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061312726?time=1435734000

Seller's Bp After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061312726?time=1435820400

Updated pricing at 242.5 keys; there are several sales below? Unsold @ 250 keys on op for 2 months

Mini price: (200 keys - 215 keys) ~207.5 keys *.9 = 186.75 keys ~190 keys

------Minis for sale #3-------

Burning Mountebank's Masque:

Sold for Ghosts Brown Bomber (230 Keys) w/ 15 Keys ~215 Keys

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1436425200

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1436511600

Additional Proof: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26420694

Was Offered, therefore no overpay.

Mini for Ghost Brown Bomber:

Ghosts Bomber: (200-260 Keys)

[Sale #1] Sold for 13th Hour Jefe (225 Keys) + Steaming Sober (~9 Keys) + Stormy Whoopee (13 Keys) + 11 Keys ~258 Keys

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122275273?time=1436425200

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122275273?time=1436566372

[B/O] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26558645 ~200 Keys

The buyout says quicksell, but since he bought it for 180 Keys, and 260 might be too high on this, might as well include it in range.

and

Sold for Ghosts Pyromancer's Mask (158 Keys) + Flames Dapper (69 Keys) w/ Orb. Planets Masque (30 Keys) ~197 Keys (~200 keys)

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147?time=1435302000

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147?time=1435388400

Mini for Haunted Ghosts Pyromancer's Mask (RIP):

Haunted Pyromancer's Mask: (175 Keys)

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55b1da87b98d88c9738b45f2

---------------------------------

Final Sales:

70

160

190

To determine an outlier, previous offers on the ninja will be considered:

Stormy 13th Brigade + Steaming Pencil Pusher offered on the TW Ninja

http://imgur.com/6LRF9XO

Mini on Steaming Pencil Pusher

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5583fb9dba8d883a288b4568

Appears sufficient with two accurate pure sales at 17 and 19.

(100) + (18) = 118

and

Offers here (most recent trade):

Misty Skull Bonk Boy (updated at ~145)

and

Vivid Plasma Ninja Hood (150; updated) + Steaming Reggae (outdated at ~22.5; mini at 18 due to prices on tf2op - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26541760 (quicksell unsold @ 3 days) + A fireproof diary (lol - updated ~14.5) + Pro KS FaN (ehhh 6-10 keys based on aussie pricings) + a couple of ref in sweets ~190

Sale @ 70 keys is an outlier based on these offers:

118

150

190

---------------------------------

Final Pricing: 160 keys - 190 keys

s/o to Kuuko, Ðε Ȥøȴεx², and Roller

I clearly picked the wrong hat for my first price suggestion :< have fun reading