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So.
The sale used to price this hat last time was wrong... but the price is right? Hmm.
SALES:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25818070 Sold for Ghosts HWNN (97.5) + 30 keys
(97.5 * 0.9) + 30 = 117.75 (rounding to 118)
Histories:
http://backpack.tf/item/1237424344
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3764605242,631,5
Only recent sale.
Let it ride.