"Matchsticks"

Updating this for another suggestion [Read below for more info]

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold + vivid metal slug + elite grade strange sticky for duped scorching milkman (~120, if clean)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133953011?time=1437462000 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133953011?time=1437548400 after

cannot appraise the metal slug at the moment, cant use

Sale 2:

Sold + vivid metal slug + elite grade strange sticky for energy orb turbine torcher (~72?)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997894283?time=1437412811 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997894283?time=1437462000 after

Mini torcher:

The buyer seems to have gotten it for a scorching whoopee (~72)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133953011?time=1437289200 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133953011?time=1437375600 after

This sale cant be used, but would probably be an outlier anyway, seeing how it pretty much instantly sold for more in hats.

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Sale 3:

Sold for duped GBH hallmark + 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021069617?time=1437548400 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021069617?time=1437634800 after

Mini sale 3:

Mini hallmark:

Cant make up the exact sale; using its history, this is one sale (but what exactly happened; I cant tell):

seems to have indirectly sold for a steaming neckwear (~60):

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021069617?time=1437375600 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021069617?time=1437462000 after

Seems to have been indirectly bought with a c9 ballcap (far outdated ~85):

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174050575?time=1437447293 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174050575?time=1437462000 after

The values make sense as there's a clean one available for 70:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26384915

Taking 60

0.9*(60)+3 = ~57, rounding to 60

-> 60 keys

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This value makes sense given the other 2 sales that cant be officially used:

- The vivid slug has been sold with a BO of 30 (dunno for what, cant trace histories properly)

- The elite sticky launcher has a BP (based on SCM) of ~16

Using those values and the 60 from this sale, the duped scorching milkman sale makes sense. Scorching whoopee is still an outlier, but it supports the drop.

Only recent sales. The 2nd in existence is still in the unboxers bp.

Tricky one, any additional insights are highly preferred in this one!

~Foamy :3

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P.S.

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Initially updated this to help out the frostbite triboniphorius.

This would lead to a range of 60-110, which is too wide (even for me), with just 2 sales. It is probably best to leave the frostbite tyrannus unpriced for now.

~Foamy :3