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Crownz
Sale 1:
Appears as Sold with a Smoking Teutonic for 112 Keys + DemonFlame Brown Bomber + PE Neckwear + Collector's Liberty Launcher
None of the histories match. At all. But its the only way the items couldve been recieved
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014404374?time=1438125858
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014404374?time=1438153200
=527 Keys
Sale 2:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014668884?time=1438326000 (buyer before)
Sold for Dusk HKC + CMoon Chapeau + Stormy Belt
= 444 Keys
(3 minis yay!)
Mini on HKC:
Sold with Logo Dapper's + 42 Keys for Logo KE
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049847929?time=1436166000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049847929?time=1436252400
333 - 25 - 42 = 266 Keys
Mini on Chapeau:
Sold with 17 Keys (but why? D:) for Stare Hiding Hood
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075430775?time=1432364400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075430775?time=1432521152
=200 Keys
Mini on Belt:
Sold for Ghosts Spartan
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173925222?time=1437027140
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173925222?time=1437030000
=27 Keys
I'm throwing my two cents here that first sale was sold for a PE Neckwear and a P. Fetti Antlers with the Smoking Teutonic on the Crown as you can see from here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26613686
The guy then sold it for Demonflame Brown Bomber and some other keys.
So, the total of the sale should be...
Mini on P. Fetti Antlers:
Sold for Demonflame Brown Bomber (194 Keys) + C. Liberty Launcher (2 Keys) + 45 Keys ~240 Keys
240+275-29=486 Keys*0.9=437 Keys
I'm not sure how the other keys get in, but it doesn't match history so I'm not accounting that.
Just updated the P. Fetti Antlers btw, the current median now for it is 232.5 Keys. Therefore, 233+275-29=479*0.9=~430 Keys.
Shortened your range quite a lot, the price should make sense now.