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More than sunbeams..
Sale 1; SCM:
http://backpack.tf/item/1886335757
(shows its non-tradable and tradable on the 8th)
http://i.imgur.com/Y5zZJIZ.png
(shows that a certain hightier waxy sold on the middle of jul 31 and aug 1)
Keys were 2.43 on that day
=82 Keys
All I found
SCM sales should have a range - what the buyer pays for it and what the seller receives.
So your first calculation is right (200 / 2.43 = ~82 keys) but that's only half the working out:
200 / 1.15 / 2.43 = ~72 keys
So you should be making a range of 72-82.
Feel free to give it a range. Accepting as better than current.