Suggestion: Cauldron Bubbles Defiant Spartan at 36 keys

Price Suggestion

~37.5 keys

cauldron

89 votes up

30 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sun, 09 Aug 15 22:57:14 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

There you go, a B/O drop... that turned out into a mini suggestion (resuggesting from 50 keys flat http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55c64948b98d88ba068b461b ).

Two exist, two for sale:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25971971 Unsold at 65 keys for 2 months, spell.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26031884 "Quickselling" at 50 keys for 2 months, "free" spells and paint.

But a sale has occurred in the last 3 months (thanks to Carnage):

Cauldron Bubbles Defiant Spartan + Blizzardy Storm Master's Yellow Belt for a duped Spellbound Valley Forge

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042127887?time=1431500400 (May 13rd vs May 16th)

Mini for duped SVF

Green Black Hole Wraith Wrap sold for what appears to be a Duped Spellbound Valley Forge + 11 keys + 18 refs:

Wraith Wrap seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043911744?time=1431414000 (May 12th vs 14th)

Wraith Wrap buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072642728?time=1431414000 (May 12th vs 13th)

Wraith Wrap worth 90 keys at the time, keys were 19 refs. With overpay : 90*0.9-11-18/19= ~69 keys ---- nice number.

Main sale

Spellbound Valley Forge (69 keys) for C.B. Spartan (X) + B.S. Master's Yellow Belt (~33 keys) --------- X=36 keys

- Taking 36 keys as the final price. Unsold at 50 keys for two months somewhat supports a drop.

- There was another sale involving a duped Valley Forge, but was complex and would have been an outlier anyways (thanks to ShadowMan).

Comments supporting, countering or threatening me for dropping the value of your backpack are welcome.

given that your sale is 5-7 days till going outdated

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25971971

was offered a pro ks aussie scatter and declined

I'm not familiar with unusual suggestions involving offers, but doing some quick maths ~$110*0.9/2.45= ~40 keys, which is close to the price i'm suggesting.

Is it worth resuggesting with a range? Can offers be used that way?

offers can be used to completely invalidate a sale. honestly if that sale happened in a reasonable time,i'd go with a range,but given it's going to be outdated in a few days i'd either completely refrain from suggesting,or conservatively do 50 due to the b/o.

bakpak sais iz moar, eh? Glad you are here, but besides that offer you don't have anything.

besides an almost oudated sale,he doesn't have anything.

edit: even the sale on the mini is 4 days from being outdated

+ the wraith itself has a 3 months old price

-.-

edit 2: and as a bonus the belt is also outdated

I have an unsold at 50 keys for two months with free spells and paint. Probably doesn't help that much, but anyway, I made the mini with a trade that occurred one day before the main trade happened. Wraith price had been updated recently and Belt wasn't outdated then.

Taken from unusual suggestion guide: "The values of items in a trade should be the "value" of the item at the time of the trade". Did i get that wrong?

in which guide does it say that ? don't link me the "use original values of unusuals" guide lol

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/ ---- that one, part 4.

that doesn't make sense,as it pretty much contradicts with part 1.

"Hats with an outdated price (>3 months old) are not valid proof."

how can it be up to the suggester when the guide specifically says not to use hats older than 3 months.

which is reasonable.

what's the point of using outdated hats.

But they weren't outdated at the time of the trade, that's the point. I don't think i can use a price of a hat that got accepted, let's say, yesterday to price a trade that occurred months ago. It's like using the price of ~~keys~~ earbuds from today to price a sale that involved ~~keys~~ earbuds months ago when ~~keys~~ earbuds were like 10+ keys each.

there is a difference tho,earbuds are a currency,one which rapidly dropped.

that was also said in the guide "To further complicate matters, some items (like buds or the bmoc) drop precipitously. So using this method may not be reliable."

the method is alright if the hat changed values while being still under 3 months.

where you'd use the value at the time of the sale instead of the new one.

you don't go cherrypicking what you want from the rules,both statements need to be valid.

Well, probably not the best example, but i still doubt it works the way you say.

We need the help from a mod in this matter.

your reasoning cannot be right,because it contradicts the rules.

also by saying your are allowed to use the yellow belt,which has a 5 month price and which has proof going to as far as 7 months keeping in mind that the trades happened while buds were a currency. just no

Hmmm other example: Some players have an extremely good luck (and a big wallet) and somehow unbox, let's say, 10 GBH Wraith Wraps in the next few days after the main trade happened. The price of it will drop dramatically, let's say to 40 keys. Now we do it your way and try to price the SVF using that 40 keys price ------ ~24 keys instead of 69. Does that mean the SVF dropped 45 keys in price just because the hat it was traded for is now more common?

Yeah, crazy example, but that's how i see it now.

if all the changes happened in 3 months,it's reasonable to select the value near the trade

an influx of new hats to the market would be considered and the new price shouldn't be used in that case either.

however that's not a good example,because it's crazy.

sale is almost 3 months olds and probably an outlier

Well, you might be right, i probably should have kept the other suggestion open for longer.

But this hat is 1/2 in existence, how can we safely say if it was an outlier or not if there are no more sales?

you couldn't,unless there is a declined offer at 36+ keys

it's currently on the market, so with a drop this big I have no doubt the mods will keep this suggestion up for a bit. No harm in keeping it up

if it's kept up for longer than 5 days it's invalid by default :P as the sale goes 3 months old then

You are right to take the values of hats at the time of the trade. And your mini on the SVF is perfect - that's exactly what we're looking for. You have a sale for that very close to the sale for the spartan.

The problem here is that you are using an outdated value on the GBH wraith wrap. Ideally, you would try to find sales on the wraith wrap close to the time of that sale as well. Why is it wrong to use the logic that it wasn't outdated at the time? Two reasons.

(1) By the same logic, if you have a sale 3 months old involving a hat priced 6 months ago, you could say the same thing. The 6 month old price wouldn't have been outdated 3 months ago. Stacking of "outdatedness" becomes problematic.

(2) Let's actually look at the GBH wraith suggestion - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/553e0207b98d8873708b475b. First of all, sales at 90 and 130 do raise a bit of concern about why 130 is the outlier. Even if we say we are confident in its price, look at when that sale happened. That sale happened on April 3 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25532480

So basically your entire suggestion here hinges on this trade - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25532480

Do you think it's fair to price this today based on that trade that happened more than 4 months ago?

If you can find a sale on the GBH wraith closer to May 15, you'll be right on with the idea of valuing hats as they were at the time of the trade.

Thanks for the explanation. Seems fair, i will try to do that.

On the other hand, if i manage to find a sale on the GBH, will this suggestion be valid even if the main sale (the one that involves the Spartan) is close to 3 months old?

http://backpack.tf/item/1680137779 Gl, there's atleast one sale to use. (Took from GBH Suggestion)

But January or July aren't closer to May than April.

4 in existence, the other one seems to belong to the one who unboxed it. I'm missing the level 2 one.

Up to 3 months is fine, but that's a hard cap. I might also use the offer of the aussie scatter to set the high end since it was declined.

I don't think i will be able to find a sale on the GBH Wraith Wrap closer to May. There are 4 in existence:

http://backpack.tf/item/1680137779 level 55 ---- nothing from January to July.

http://backpack.tf/item/1654596635 level 25 ---- some sales in April, but marked scammers involved.

level 72 ----- belongs to the original owner.

level 2 ------ i can't find it, but doesn't seem to have been put on the market.

I think the best thing to do is to suggest 50 keys again based on that B/O unsold. I will leave this open in case someone has something else to say.

no objections there