Sale 1

Sold for 50 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26279133

Buyer before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036255543?time=1435302000 (June 26th)

Buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036255543?time=1435388400 (June 27th)

Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036255543?time=1435388400&compare=1435302000

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Sale 2

Sold for bubbling crone's dome (40-45) = 42.5 * 0.9 = 38 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26050922

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044208427?time=1432537200 (May 25th)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044208427?time=1432796400 (May 28th)

Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044208427?time=1432796400&compare=1432537200

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Seller in sale 2 was looking for 50 keys, and the crone's was 50-60 and in date at the time of sale (though the more recent suggestion is closer in date than the older one.) Given that, plus the sale above being pure, I'm going to call 38 a low outlier and go with 50 flat. Feedback welcome.