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Looking at this gigantic price range like DAYUM
Sale 1:
21 keys pure
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990986202?time=1432882800
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990986202?time=1432969200
Sale 2:
Added these sweets: http://prntscr.com/84z882 for a Circling TF Logo Master's Yellow Belt(32.5 keys)
Buyer before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079634422?time=1438930800
Buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079634422?time=1439017200
32.5(Yellow Belt) - 2.19(Sweets) = 30.31
30.31 * 0.9 = 27.27 rounded down to 27 keys
Counting as outlier
Sale 3:
22 keys pure
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032352931?time=1438617003
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032352931?time=1438671600
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Final price: 21-22 keys
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