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Surprised nobody beat me to this. Ah well.
Counter-manipulation.
SALES:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26349222 Sold for Blizzy Belt (Outdated at 33, mini at 24) + Aussie Black Box (18) + key + G.KE (rounding out)
(42 * 0.9) + 1 = 38.8 (rounding to 39)
Histories:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049370335?time=1436425200&compare=1438153200
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26289547 Sold for Steaming Western..?
Outlier.
Belt mini:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26643171 Sold for 25
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26023863 Sold for 24
Using 24.5.
Let it ride.
I planned on doing this the first time someone suggested for it, but the previous buyouts this hat has had, had me thinking that ~40 flat would be too high. Its unclear what they sold for, though. Honestly, I was waiting for the current seller to sell, but since it hasn't resold yet, I guess there's nothing opposing the suggested value
That Belt mini looks to be based on quicksells, both sold in 1-2 days based on histories. The second one is also almost 3 months old,
http://backpack.tf/item/1639845948
http://backpack.tf/item/1605406752
If it's not older than 3 months it's still usable.
Also, judging by the other 2nd gen effects, 24 is pretty decent.
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but didn't the 3 months change to 2 months?
I'm not sure where people keep getting 3 months from
http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/
"Sales older than 2 months old are not valid proof; this does not mean that they are not useful. Feel free to include them to provide supplemental proof. Just don't rely on them to set your range.
Exceptions: For very rare hats, if there have only been 1-2 sales in the last 3 months, a trade up to 3 months old is okay to use as proof to establish more data points. Keep in mind, new sales should take precedence over older ones. "
Well, it isn't selling for any higher, so it seemed fine.
If it WAS any higher, the Slo-Poke sale would be capped at 40 anyway, so, swings and roundabouts, methinks
Still think that mini is low but fair point with the B/O.