Scorching Flames Tough Guy's Toque (50-55 keys) | (last priced 5 months ago)

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Trade #1: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26692960

Offer 1: Sir Loins offered an Orbiting Fire Cold Killer and 10 keys

Cold Killer was last priced May 16th, 2014 at 41-42 keys

Only one for sale, however, there was a recent sale here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26255002

Buyout of 45 keys and sold for a Sulphurous Bunsen Brave and 10 keys

Bunsen Brave is unpriced, but it appears to have been sold in a trade involving a Haunted Ghosts Sergeant’s Drill Hat.

This is based on comments on this trade corresponding to the history of the Drill Hat.

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26734662

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26302312

Sergeant’s Drill Hat was last priced August 11th, 2015 at 39 keys

Value of offer: ~47 keys

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Offer 2: Roxas offered a Morning Glory Greased Lightning, but said may need negotiation.

Greased Lightning last priced July 2nd, 2015 at 64 keys

Value of offer: ~58 keys with unusual overpay

Note: Since it was not a definite 1 for 1, I am making the actual value around 50-55 keys if sweets were needed to be provided.

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Trade #2: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26211560

Sold for a Burning Flames Carouser's Capotain

Buyer’s inventory before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065713150?time=1435042800

Buyer’s inventory after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065713150?time=1435129200

Buyer claims on his trade he paid 75 keys in first generation unusual(s): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26316475

Carouser's Capotain last priced January 24th, 2014 at 60-69 keys

One sold for a Molten Mallard Voodoo Juju (Slight Return) on this trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26282345

Voodoo Juju last priced April 26th, 2015 at 61 keys

Value of sale: ~58 keys

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Trade #3: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26778737

Sold for a Morning Glory Heavy Duty Rag: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26688411

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047577641?time=1439535600

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047577641?time=1439708400

Buyer before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994269089?time=1439449200

Buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994269089?time=1439708400

Heavy Duty Rag last priced April 23rd, 2015 at 55 keys. There are none currently for sale.

Value of Sale: ~50 keys

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Conclusion: Highest sale was ~58 keys with unusual overpay. Lowest sale was ~50 keys. However, as unusual overpay is often subjective, and there are no other sales to help with 58 being the high part of the range, I am going to the next closest offer to match which is 55 keys.