Suggestion: Scorching Flames El Jefe at 500–700 keys

Price Suggestion

~355 keys

scorch

78 votes up

6 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Sun, 06 Sep 15 10:23:00 +0000 by Horizon.

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Comments

"When god gives you lemons you FIND A NEW GOD"

I've always felt like this was overpriced, ever since I first encountered it ~4 months ago in a clear outlier sale.

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for planets pullover (~120) + TW crones (~400)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1435474800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1435561200 after

Minis sale 1:

Mini crones:

Sold for ~120 pure + spec ks DbD KE (~120) + beams sack (~50) + Spellbound oiled (~45) + time warp gridiron (~15) + logo stuntman (~15) + pro aussie scattergun w/good parts (~50) + other pro ks stranges (~10)

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121945669?time=1437894000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121945669?time=1437980400 after

0.9*(120+50+50+45+15+15+10) + 120 = ~400 after overpay

Taking 400

Mini polar:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55cdaab4ba8d8815578b45bf 120

400+0.9*120 = ~510

-> 510 keys

=====================================================================================================================

Sale 2:

Sold + burning hive for moon crones

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1437957779 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1438153200 after

Should be used for the crones instead

=====================================================================================================================

Sale 3:

Sold for stormy hazmat (~250-400?) + duped scorching tyrannus (~130) + ge mancer(~130) + salvaged #30 crate (~16) + 40 pure + sweets (~7)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26742811 BO 600 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197987703733?time=1439773976 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197987703733?time=1439794800 after

Minis sale 3:

Tyrannus:

Cant find any recent duped sales (apart from a bulk for scorching BoA)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26476912 Clean seller at 130

Mini hazmat:

Shouldnt be updated yet. Cant find any other sales on this. The one currently on the market has a very sketchy history, seems to have recently been involved in a scam (after which it was QSed for something I cannot identify).

http://backpack.tf/item/1030333731

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043003969?time=1432393078

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043003969?time=1432537200

GE mancer:

Only recent sales I can find:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006572847?time=1439098258 involves unusual minigun

Seems to be 95 keys?

buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079042246?time=1432710000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079042246?time=1432796400 after

Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034747176?time=1432550884 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034747176?time=1432796400 after

Feeling like Im missing something, seeing as the original offer was a cmoon ushanka (~80) + 30 pure http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25955497 after which the seller asked for 'quite a bit more'

Supportive:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26531185 declined 125 pure. has higher offers. 95 is definitely too low.

Gonna take its recently outdated value of 130.

Uncertain due to the uncertainty of the hazmat's value.

- If the hazmat is taken as ~250, this sale will be valued over 500, the low end.

- If the hazmat is taken at 400, this sale will be capped at its BO of 600

Either way, it does not affect the outcome of the suggestion, so I'll add it as supportive middle value.

=====================================================================================================================

Sale 4:

Offered + 400 keys on golden pan (~1100)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26699630

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197987703733?time=1438844400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197987703733?time=1439199903 after

Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053233649?time=1439096529 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053233649?time=1439190000 after

1100-400 = ~700

-> 700 keys

=====================================================================================================================

Sales at:

510

~550-600

700

Rounding to 500-700

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3

beams sack at 50 wat?

Regarding on sale 3, the current HazMat seller is selling it at http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26058878 250 Keys for 2 months.

Besides, since mostly Blizzardy=Stormy (well looks like HazMats' Stormy are slightly higher than Blizzardy), and since a blizzardy is selling for 165, I guess Stormy would be around 200, but definitely not over 250 and not even 400.

http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/HazMat%20Headcase/Tradable/Craftable/30

Realistically, without any evidence whatsoever, my estimated total would be around 500 or even lower on sale 3.

Moon Crones was recently sold for 700 Keys by the way, which I think sale 2 would possibly be around 500 as well.

Although I think 500 Keys is a bit low as well from seeing the most recent sale (although he overpayed quite some) and some offers, but ~600 Keys might be reasonable.

I forgot to mention the hazmats BO of 250 somewhere in the long mini there, but its where I got the 250 from. Since I couldnt get a clear mini otherwise, I decided not to include the sale to establish a range, but rather as supportive since it would still fall within the suggested range.

Beams sack was probably a sign of laziness; Since its only a small percentage of the total value, I decided to just take its outdated value (and rounded it) since I would say it'd suffice for a mini. Technically its lower, which is coincidentally made up for by the fact that I rounded the whole sale down. I got lucky there :P

ok insanity wolf calm yourself ;3

Working on a counter, got a fresh sale

That sale will likely be an outlier seeing how its currently for sale with a BO of 750 and has recently sold at a BO of 600. Itll depend on the value youll find on the shortstop.

The secret exe sold for ~500 in hats here, so its price is still fairly accurate: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26700168

Without the shortstop, the sale is ~620 (after overpay), estimating it ends up ~850. Id consider it an outlier, but feel free to construct a counter.

(Im guessing you mean that sale)

That is correct.

Looking like it's an outlier indeed.

Just got offered a duped Sunbeams Team Captain (by me)... no way in hell that one is 500, or is it?

Im extremely certain that if he'd have taken that offer, it'd have fallen within the suggested range. Since its mass-duped I certainly doubt it'll be above it

It may tell us something about the range, though. Mabye 500 for a clean Jefe is an extreme outlier... ;)

Seems kinda odd that the Jefe valued at 700 in your suggestion instantly went up on the market for 600 right after.

I'd say 700 is an outlier.

Sale provided in the comments was far over 700, which is a clear outlier seeing previous and current BOs, but in my eyes it supports 700 as part of the range

We have one sale at the low end, 2 other sales supporting that (sale 2 and 3 are both imo closer to the low end) and then we have a 700 sale, a sale above that and also the beams tc offer which should be around 700 easily. This range is as good as it can be.