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Small update needed.
Wow, this took too much time. Probably wouldn't have done it if i didn't own one *everybody downvotes* some days ago. WAIT! I sold it already. And i have a wall of undeniable proof:
↓↓↓Wall of undeniable proof↓↓↓
Valid Sales
1) I sold it for an Spec. Ks. Australium Wrench (~26 keys). I offered it so i won't apply overpay (that's ok, isn't it?): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26834248
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089640664?time=1440313200 (Aug. 21st vs 23rd)
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2) I bought it for a Dead Presidents Harmburg (~25) + 4 keys ====>
25*0.9+4= ~27 keyshttp://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107783989?time=1439967600 (Aug 19th vs 20th)
Harmburg is close to being outdated, so here's a mini just in case: I bought the Harmburg for a Kill-a-Watt Vintage Merryweather (20.5 keys)+ 4 keys ====> 20.5*0.9+4= ~22 keys
http://imgur.com/Gw2Yj1e --- It's impossible to show effects using Snipping tool, so you can check them below.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057521392?time=1439794800 (Aug 16th vs 17th)
So main sale would be 22+4= 26 keys
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3) Sold for 21 keys ====> 21 keys (refs histories don't match) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26707020
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107783989?time=1439881200 (Aug 18th vs 19th)
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100514826?time=1439881200
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4) Sold for 18 keys ====> 18 keys ---- Had it for ~3 days, quicksale maybe?
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070756632?time=1438930800 (August 7th vs 8th)
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5) Sold with a Circling TF Logo Western Wear (?) for a Ghastly Ghosts Jr Employee of the Mmmph (35 keys) + F.T. Current Event Scattergun (?)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116086899?time=1438758000 (August 5th vs 6th)
Mini on the Western: Sold for a Vivid Plasma Backbiter's Billycock (17.5 keys) + 1.5 keys ====> 17.5*0.9+1.5= ~17 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155094681?time=1439622000 (Aug 15th vs 16th)
Mini on the Scattergun: http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Current%20Event%20Scattergun%20%28Field-Tested%29 i'm too lazy to take the mean there. Around Aug 2nd and 10th: ~$4.20 --- ~1.5-1.7 keys
Back at the main sale: X=(35+1.6-17)*0.9= ~18 keys
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6) (Not used) Sold with a Kill-a-Watt Data Mining Light for a Strange Pro. Ks. Minimal Wear Current Event Scattergun (?) ----
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021272428?time=1437030000 (July 16th vs 17th)
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113367900?time=1437030000
Mini on the Scattergun: http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Current%20Event%20Scattergun%20%28Minimal%20Wear%29 From July 9th to 24th (1 week before-1 week after): 100 120.75 91.4 91.4 86 86 83 = ~$94.08 --- ~32-38 keys
Mini on the Light: Couldn't find any. It was involved in a sale with high tier hats, and one probable SCM sale. ----Should be used to update the Light
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7) Sold for a Phosphorous Data Mining Light (21 keys) + 3 keys + ~2 keys in sweets ---- 21*0.9+5= ~24 keys --- Sweets had parts, so i rounded them to 2 keys.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056849326?time=1434178800 (June 13th vs 17th)
The Light was updated 1 week before the sale, so i'm using that value (it's outdated now but was well up-to-date at the time of the sale)
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8) Sold for 25 keys pure ====> 25 keys ---- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26131957
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056849326?time=1433574000 (June 6th vs 7th)
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9) (Not used) Sold for a duped Stormy Storm Noble Nickel Amassment of Hats (?)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143683405?time=1433487600 (June 2nd vs 5th)
Mini on the Noble: Sold for a Power Surge Fed-Fightin' Fedora (?)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971795630?time=1434956400 (June 22nd vs 23rd)
Micro on the Fedora: Sold for a Miami Nights Thirst Blood (?) + 3 keys ------- Nah, would need another mini. Too complex.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047887998?time=1437894000 (July 26th vs 27th)
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10) (Not used) Sold with 12 keys for a Flaming Lantern Tyrantium Helmet (?)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968530016?time=1434178800 (June 13th vs 15th)
Mini on the Tyrantium: Sold with a Haunted Ghosts Batter's Helmet + 13 keys for a Disco Beat Down Backwards Ballcap (36.5 keys)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066124947?time=1433660400 (June 7th vs 12th)
36.5-13= 23.5 keys for both taunt and Helmet --- outlier. Couldn't find another mini and the helmet is 1/1.
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Current Outpost sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26833148 --- looking for 32 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26248955 --- looking for around 26 keys, rejected 22.
Summary
- Sales for 26 26 21 18 18 24 25 keys.
- With that 22 keys rejected offer and current market, 18 might be too low (and the 18 keys pure sale might have been a quicksale).
- I will take 21-26 keys range.
Feedback about whether 18 keys should or shouldn't be included in range, or anything else is welcome!