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Why not kill them all?
http://backpack.tf/item/3138953006
Sale 1) Sold for a Duped Knifestorm Modest (180) + Duped Harvest Ballcap (144) + P. Fetti Brown Bomber (92.5) + DP TC (60) + 1 Key
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091477706?time=1436079600&compare=1436166000
332.5 * 0.9 = 299 + 145 = 444 Keys
Modest Mini
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55cdaab4ba8d8815578b45bf (In Sale 1)
Ballcap Mini
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100264205?time=1435561200&compare=1435906800 --- Sold for a Vivid Ninja (150 * 0.9 = ~135) + 9 Keys
Brown Bomber Mini
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066583730?time=1435820400&compare=1435734000 --- Sold for a Harvest Nano (92.5)
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Sale 2) Sold for a Haunted Ghosts Brown Bomber (252.5) + Demonflame Tossle (91) + D@D Aviator (98) + MG Polar
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131684467?time=1439276400&compare=1439362800
Brown Bomber is 252.5. I found a mini for the Tossle (91) and Aviator (98), but there's nothing for the Polar.
Ironic, because 444 = Angels.
it is safe to assume that if it sold for ~400 after overpay hats + a mg polar, that sale greatly exceeds 444. Im even quite sure you can cap that sale at its BO of 650 seeing what the polar sold for in the past.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26653841 didnt check out all the offer's actual values, but quite some seem to exceed ~450
Should I make the range 450 - 650 then?
Im not sure if that's officially allowed due to the mg polar being unpriced; but if there havent been any usable recent sales on it, these would have been the last ones:
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/555194dfb98d884a4d8b46c7
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5539fe51b88d880e6f8b46b4
Based on that, I would personally say its safe to assume that the polar is at least 250, which it needs to be to allow the cap
Im the recent sale