C9 WAR PIG

"Pay attention, because this gets messy quickly"

SALE 1:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002824061?time=1435906800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002824061?time=1435993200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26318123 - sold for 38 keys

SALE 2:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046477272?time=1437030000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046477272?time=1437116400 - sold with peace rack (mini at 54) for t-watt HKC (mini at 62.5) + spec. KS aus. sticky (SCM is ~16) + aus. nade (was 17 at the time) + sf. KS minigun (mini at 9) + sf. shotty (3) + box trot (~2.5 at the time) = (110 * 0.9) - (54 * 0.9) = 99 - 48.6 = ~50 keys

SALE 3:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008795422?time=1437894000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008795422?time=1438239600 - sold with peace rack (mini above at 54) for ghosts rack (mini at 110.5) + s. spec. KS original (5) + #15 classified coif (~3, see below) + ~2 keys of sweets = (120.5 * 0.9) - (54 * 0.9) = 108.45 - 48.6 = ~60 keys

I'm valuing the coif at 3 as it's a rather low craft number - I'm aware 3 keys is rather high for craft numbers these days but it's a soldier misc with a decent price for the un-modified version. This won't change the sale value too much.

SF. KS MINIGUN:

http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Festive+Minigun&quality=11&tradable=1&craftable=1&killstreak_tier=1

http://i.imgur.com/3FOTXas.png

Sellers around 9, taking that.

PEACE RACK:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55e37a62b98d88676a8b45af

T-WATT HKC:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55e3a762b98d88fb698b45c1

SPEC. KS ORIGINAL:

http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Original&quality=11&tradable=1&craftable=1&killstreak_tier=2

http://i.imgur.com/Rdk2A2a.png

Sellers ~5 keys, taking that.

GHOSTS RACK:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971800102?time=1434870000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971800102?time=1434956400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26242523 - sold for MG lucky shot (outdated)

This was used as a mini to price the Secret Phantom, so I won't touch this.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123292872?time=1434610800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123292872?time=1434697200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26233981 - sold with cauldron MYB (outdated) for MG beak (outdated)

Beak is 8 months out, Belt is even further - will save this sale for the Beak.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055645755?time=1434438000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055645755?time=1434524400 - sold for 13th Napper's (106) + aus. pro. KS flame (mini at 23.5) + c. pro. KS powerjack (mini at 10) + c. pro KS reserve shooter (SCM is ~8) = 147.5 * 0.9 = ~133

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025560677?time=1438412400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025560677?time=1438498800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26654405 - sold for 88 keys pure in a couple of days

AUS. PRO. KS FLAME:

http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Flame+Thrower&quality=11&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=1&killstreak_tier=3

http://i.imgur.com/K9Dfz42.png

Sellers between 23-24 keys, taking that conservatively.

C. PRO. KS POWERJACK:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25382445 - offer of 10 keys 4 weeks ago, no other proof to use

I can't quite prove properly that 133 keys for a Ghosts Rack is really high, but we all know it is - I'm taking a range of 88-133, which makes the mean value 110.5, which is kinda close.

--

Back to earth, now. The first sale was unsold at 39 for a while: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26318123

Seeing as sales 2 and 3 were both complex (and 3 felt like it had some off minis, I went through every sale I could though) I'm going to call them outliers and defer to the pure sale that took a week or two to occur.

Peace Rack is now updated at 51. Some re-worked calculations:

99 - 45.9 = ~53

108.45 - 45.9 = ~63

Going by my logic for calling sales 2 and 3 outliers, they're still... y'know, outliers.