Resuggestion from http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55c92bacdea9e9f1148b4576

Reason: The price of the S.F. Buckaroos Hat i used wasn't outdated at the time of the suggestion, but there is an open suggestion now that is closer to the time of the main sale. The 30 keys price was based on sales that occurred in May ( as seen here http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55737c3edea9e930618b45aa ), and the open suggestion is based on sales that occurred in August ( http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55da390db98d8836388b4567 ).

August is closer to July than May, so i'm going to use that open suggestion.

____________________________________________________________

2 years old price. Two exist, one is duped and hasn't moved: http://backpack.tf/item/1763781956

Other one: http://backpack.tf/item/3319531752

Sale

Purple Energy Data Mining Light sold for Scorching Flames Buckaroos Hat (open suggestion for ~38 keys) + duped Circling TF Logo Safe'n'Sound (?) + Vintage Mining Light (~7 refs)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147?time=1437462000 (July 21st vs 22nd)

______________________________________________________________

Mini on duped CTFL Safe'n'Sound: Sold for a Bubbling Attendant (?) + Genuine Anger (~8.77 refs) + Strange Specialized Killstreak Festive Flare Gun (?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106786444?time=1436770800 (July 13th vs July 25th)

Specialized Ks. Festive Flare Gun sold in SCM between July 12nd and 17th for: 6.50+6.71+6.89+6.62+5.85+4.60+5.63+4.60+5.69+5.79+4.60= ~$5.77/~$2.48= ~2.3 keys ---- after taxes ----2-2.3 keys

______________________________________________________________

Micro on Bubbling Attendant: sold for 14 keys pure

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190347086?time=1436857200 (July 14th vs 15th)

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198892186?time=1436857200 (July 14th vs 15th)

______________________________________________________________

Back to the mini: CTFL SnS(Y)= BA(14) + GA(8.77/17.77) + SSK FFG(2.15) ---------> Y= 14 + (0.5+2.15)*0.9 = ~16.4 keys

(keys were 17.55–18 refs at the time)

______________________________________________________________

Back to the main sale: PE DML(X)= 38*0.9 + 16.4 + 7/17.77 = ~51 keys

This is the most recent and valid sale.

A lot of history checking and maths involved, so if you find something wrong feel free to correct me.

Criticism appreciated!

Well, the S.F. Buckaroos suggestion was closed by the submitter. Anyways, the value i used here (38 keys) is close to a pure sale for 36 keys http://imgur.com/8VisRR9 provided by Dan Castellaneta. The difference wouldn't be too big in my opinion.