Suggestion: Purple Energy Modest Pile of Hat at 166–180 keys

Price Suggestion

~93 keys

p.nrg

58 votes up

43 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Tue, 22 Sep 15 13:08:05 +0000 by Horizon.

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Comments

Hey guys,

A new pure sale happened today. No B/O's caps this time.

SALE #1:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26631091

Seller's BP, BEFORE the trade: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087125768?time=1441782000

Seller's BP, with the 180 keys from killah, AFTER the trade: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087125768

SOLD FOR: 180 keys pure

TOTAL: 180 keys

///////////////////////////////////////////////////

SALE #2:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26737232

SOLD for: Scorching Sole Mate (136 keys) + Blizzardy Storm Pyromancer's Mask (53-62 keys)

TOTAL: 136 + 53-62 * 0,9 = 174 keys

Proof: http://s14.postimg.org/wwshd6boh/Proof_PE_Lemon.png

Buyer's bp, BEFORE the trade: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126599829?time=1439362800

Buyer's bp, AFTER the trade: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126599829?time=1439449200

MINI for Sole Mate: http://imgur.com/dy1wEm5

Sold together with the Blizz Pyromancer's, for a Sulphurous Brainiac (115-125) + Nuts 'n Bolts Antlers (80-88) + Haunted Ghosts Tam O' Shanter (18-20)

Proof: http://s18.postimg.org/xqypvrzi1/Sole_Mate_Proof.png

///////////////////////////////////////////////////

SALE #3:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26565808

NOTE: Has been offered 150 keys in pure, by "tikupra", however the seller did not accepted.

SOLD for: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26644984 + 80 keys pure

TOTAL VALUE: (45+55 / 2) + (27+35 / 2) + (15) * 0,9 + 80 = 166.4 keys!

Disco Beat Down Modest (45-55) + Stormy Storm Modest (27-35) + Circling Peace Sign Ol' Geezer (15) + 80 keys

Proof: http://s27.postimg.org/807dy4fr7/modest80keys_e_hats.png

.......

##MINI for DBD Modest##

ON Jun 6, 2015

SOLD FOR: Terror-Watt Modest (40) + clean lvl 72 Lime Max's (priced at 24 keys, at the time of the trade) + 1 pink paint + 1 lack of hue paint + 8 keys

TOTAL: 40 + 24 + 3 * 0,9 + 8 = 68,3 keys!

Proof: http://i.imgur.com/NGNNEaL.png

@@ MiCRo MiNi for TW Modest @@

ON Jun 9, 2015

SOLD for: 40 keys pure.

Proof: http://i.imgur.com/yLMEDLr.png

@@ END OF TW Modest's MiCRo @@

##END OF DBD Modest's MINI##

##MINI for Stormy Modest##

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26747123

Offered: 22 keys pure + a BMOC (4 keys) and Earbuds (3.4-3.5 keys), THE SELLER REJECTED!

TOTAL: 4 + 3.4 * 0,9 + 22 = 28.6 keys

##END OF Stormy's MINI##

##MINI for CPS Geezer##

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26558009

Apparently sold for 17 keys pure, it wasn't a unusual trade! I checked the seller/buyer backpack! I didn't find no other recent sales!

##END OF CPS Geezer's Mini##

Why isn't 160 in the range?

Was about to ask this, there's really no need to exclude it out of the range.

There's 2 different offers (both declined by sellers), one of 150 keys pure, and other of 130 keys pure + tons of overpay in items (~210+ total value). Both rejected. 160 is most likely an outlier value now. Also, here is 3 sales. These 3 sales are more recent.

That 150 pure offer was noted in the last suggestion - still got accepted regardless.

I also don't see this "210+" offer o_O

All the sales are still valid, too. Can't just ignore some sales.

157, 166, 174, 180. You could probably do 160-180 at most but the change is small, there's really no point...

That 210+ offer happened here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26737232

The FN Spec.KS Shell Shocker (Mean Green) has 2 recent sales at 150$ (26th august) and 130$ (28th august) on the market.

I don't think that really means much - one of two things happened here:

The buyer retracted their offer at some point OR

The seller valued the Scorching Sole Mate + Blizz. Mancer more than that.

So yeah, I don't think that holds any weight.

Change in the mean is just less than 5% and the current price was accepted just a week ago (which goes against unusual suggestion guidelines), Don't really see the point on updating this one again for this small change.

I already saw suggestions being accepted even when a recent suggestion was accepted few days before!

I'm just being fair, ok? A 180 keys pure sale happened. And it's my right to include it, I'm not going to lose this sale.

Also, the change is exactly 5%. So, even with this argument. I'm in.

That happens when there is an error in the previous suggestion, like this:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55e90237b98d88af288b45dc

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55e9a2deb98d88275c8b4584

And the same way you included the 180 sale, you should have included the 160 sale. 160 can't be an outlier if 166 isn't. That's just a way to increase the mean on the hat you coincidentally own. Doing it the right way, the change is 3%. Doing it your way, it's 4.8%

But as always, i'm just another suggester who gives his point of view. It's just up to mods.

Just throwing this out there. (Yeh im the guy who paid 180.)

I offered from the range of 160 (my starting) to what I paid (180). I got automatic no's on my offer of 160 pure and considerations for everything after 170, but those didn't fall through either. So this required me to keep adding. Seller was willing to do 170 pure + an aussie knife but then I would practically be paying his B/O of 190. So yeh we were able to find middle ground at 180.

TL;DR - was impossible for me to find a PE Modest at 160 pure to 170 pure. So price change suggestion would only show accuracy meh. And damn well should be changed cause let's be honest, pure offers are rare even though you just have to buy from key sellers on SourceOP. So a pure offer of this high has to be noted. Not just saying this cause I'm the buyer and this would increase my price range for when I sell it (which I don't plan to, this is my bae unusual).

P.S. ever since the sale (1 day) 3 more PE Modest are on outpost with a B/O of 180. They say they're clean but I haven't checked since on my phone.

Thanks for the comment, I guess 160 shouldnt be in the range then. And 166 should have been rounded up to 170 but its ok I accept this.