Re-suggesting because the price seems to now be lower with more of a spread than I'd previously concluded.

First off, it's pretty clear this item needs a drop. I haven't seen a sale at 2 ref for well over a month and all the sellers on the whole first page of the backpack.tf classified sales are below 2.

Unsold at 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26729760 (1 month)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26743000 (1 month – Expired last week)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26834871 (3 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26831975 (3 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26813742 (3 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26863839 (3 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26875948 (2 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26866618 (2 weeks – 5 for sale, still has 5 in backpack)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26905471 (2 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26972130 (2 weeks)

Obviously these things aren't going for 2 ref anymore.

Sellers at 1.88

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27029260

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26758619

Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26964958 at 1.66 Ref (Appears to have sold within 2 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26965143 at 1.77 Ref (Trade marked as complete, but seller still has SP's in backpack so it's unclear)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26953682 at 1.88 Ref (Sold within the past week)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26970328 at 1.88 Ref (Sold approximately 1 week ago)

Quicksell buyers are consistently offering between 1-1.33 ref.

I haven't found a completed trade at the low end of my suggested range, but there are currently 2 sellers on the classifieds and one buyer on outpost for that price so it seems appropriate.

Buying for 1.55

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26799082

Lowest classified list sellers at the time of this post:

http://i.imgur.com/Dd7PjZ9.png

Input is appreciated!