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sale @11 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26988795
unsolds @12 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26978250 (painted) - 1 week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26902657 - 2 weeks
invalid seller 10.11
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26121682
trade is 3 months old and buyer in classifieds 10.33 counter it
classifieds
https://gyazo.com/d986ec1b4dc4308f8fa72a2f7ab5f590
seller at 10 is unbumped, and once again, countered by the buyer
Found a quicksell from yesterday for 10 ref. I think this helps confirm your suggestion. Upvote.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27035395