Uh, well then.

SALES:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126122120?time=1436511600&compare=1436598000

Sold for SF Scatter (gonna just cancel out the gifted and spec ks / parts stuff, so 17)

17 * 0.9 = 15.3 (rounding to 15)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26303788 Sold for GE Topi (30.5) + 6 keys

(30.5 * 0.9) + 6 = 33.45 (rounding to 33)

Histories:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043992035?time=1435647600&compare=1435734000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213829632?time=1438585200&compare=1438758000 Sold for PS Croc (Used to price the Croc)

These are the only saaaaaales. However judging by the OTHER sales on the Croc, the high sale here is the outlier, not the low one.

No offers on outpost.

Also, K1ng, I looked into the stuff you gave me. Firstly the B/O of 23 keys supports the low-end of the range.

Secondly, if we use Julia's script, you can see that yes, 23 keys went in, but also that exactly 23 keys had gone out the day before.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087179808?time=1435388400&compare=1435474800

And the histories don't match where the LED went next. I'm assuming he lent them to somebody or something? But I don't think it was the sale, more happy (or unhappy, I suppose) coincedence.

What IS on outpost, however, is a "sale-to-be", as it were, here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27017256 To sell for 22 keys. They're in the offerer's backpack, just untradable.

I agree 15 is too low but it's just what the evidence suggested. However it's also readily apparent that 33 is FAR too high. So, compromise yay

Let it ride.