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Sale 1
Sold for aces high your worst nightmare (27-30) = 28.5 * 0.9 = 26 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138056364?time=1438412400 (August 1st)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138056364?time=1438498800 (August 2nd)
Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138056364?time=1438498800&compare=1438412400
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Sale 2
Sold with ~6-8 key sweets for green energy frenchman's beret (32-36) = 34 - 7 = 27 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070078205?time=1437202800 (July 18th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070078205?time=1437289200 (July 19th)
Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070078205?time=1437289200&compare=1437202800
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Sale 3
Sold for vivid plasma magistrate's mullet (19) and 8 keys = (19 * 0.9) + 8 = 25 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093544087?time=1436252400 (July 7th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093544087?time=1436425200 (July 9th)
Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093544087?time=1436252400&compare=1436425200
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Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26974635 25 keys, 1 week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26984933 25 keys, 1 week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27047842 25 keys, 1 day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25715285 26 keys, 5 months?!
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Given that there are multiple sellers at 25 and an unsold at 26 for a long period, going to go 25 flat here. Feedback welcome.