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~300 keys
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Unusual Company Man Death at Dusk
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7 month old price, only one recent sale.

Sale: Sep. 15

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1442214000

After:http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1442300400

Sold For: Purple Energy Pyro's Beanie - 44 keys

Roboactive Jumper's Jeepcap - 44 keys

Orbiting Fire Pencil Pusher - 25.5 keys

Steaming Buccaneer's Bicorne - 13.5 keys

Spec ks. Aussie Stickybomb - 18 keys

17 keys Pure

44+44+25.5+13.5+18+17 = 162

W/ Unusual overpay - (162).9 = 146 keys

Another sale:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1444374000 (October 9th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1444460400 (October 10th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1444374000&compare=1444460400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27204023 - sold with ~33 keys of items (see screenshot below) for G. Fetti Frickin' Sweet Ninja Hood (90) + pro. aus. FaN (~15-16) + Mallard Pirate Bandanna (outdated at 42.5) = (148 * 0.9 = 133.2) - (33 * 0.9 = 29.7) = 103.5, rounding to 105

Items added w/ the Company: https://gyazo.com/270ea93a585731c7706a7120e894d196

Might be a tad low due to the complexity, though.


Here's some minis for the provided sale:


Jeepcap:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064224452?time=1442386800&compare=1442473200 - sold for 51 pure (credit to happysedits, being used for the spellbound carouser too!)


Beanie:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081037946?time=1439535600 (August 14th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081037946?time=1439622000 (August 15th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081037946?time=1439535600&compare=1439622000

[no OP trade] - sold for 25 pure

Feels low, but you never know, right? :s


Bicorne:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996897239?time=1443855600 (October 3rd)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996897239?time=1443942000 (October 4th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996897239?time=1443855600&compare=1443942000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27076901 - sold for 13 pure


So, some reworked math (applying overpay on only the items that didn't require minis, bar the aussie as that sells for pure a lot):

(25 + 51 + 18 + 13 + 17) + (25.5 * 0.9 = 22.95) = 146.95, which could round to 146.


Lucky.

    Thanks a bunch. Same trader bought and sold. I don't think there's any way we can really justify using one trade and not the other. Either we'll need to wait for another sale to identify the outlier or give this a wide range.