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7 month old price, only one recent sale.
Sale: Sep. 15
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1442214000
After:http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1442300400
Sold For: Purple Energy Pyro's Beanie - 44 keys
Roboactive Jumper's Jeepcap - 44 keys
Orbiting Fire Pencil Pusher - 25.5 keys
Steaming Buccaneer's Bicorne - 13.5 keys
Spec ks. Aussie Stickybomb - 18 keys
17 keys Pure
44+44+25.5+13.5+18+17 = 162
W/ Unusual overpay - (162).9 = 146 keys
Your after link is broken. Put a space after the : and h
http://backpack.tf/item/4051168009 - More than 1 Recent Sale
Beanie is Duped. It needs a mini.
The Jeepcap is Outdated. It needs a mini.
The Stickybomb Launcher is closer to 17 Keys, not 18.
The Bicorne is Duped. It needs a mini.
The other sale you refer to was a quicksale.
Couldn't confirm duped beanie because of private backpack http://www.tf2items.com/item/4131638007
After link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1442300400
http://backpack.tf/item/266227306 - Beanie (duped)
http://backpack.tf/item/1669677827 - Jeepcap (outdated)
http://backpack.tf/item/943564563 - Bicorne (duped)
Get minis for those, then resuggest.
Another sale:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1444374000 (October 9th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1444460400 (October 10th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147329611?time=1444374000&compare=1444460400
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27204023 - sold with ~33 keys of items (see screenshot below) for G. Fetti Frickin' Sweet Ninja Hood (90) + pro. aus. FaN (~15-16) + Mallard Pirate Bandanna (outdated at 42.5) = (148 * 0.9 = 133.2) - (33 * 0.9 = 29.7) = 103.5, rounding to 105
Items added w/ the Company: https://gyazo.com/270ea93a585731c7706a7120e894d196
Might be a tad low due to the complexity, though.
Here's some minis for the provided sale:
Jeepcap:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064224452?time=1442386800&compare=1442473200 - sold for 51 pure (credit to happysedits, being used for the spellbound carouser too!)
Beanie:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081037946?time=1439535600 (August 14th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081037946?time=1439622000 (August 15th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081037946?time=1439535600&compare=1439622000
[no OP trade] - sold for 25 pure
Feels low, but you never know, right? :s
Bicorne:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996897239?time=1443855600 (October 3rd)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996897239?time=1443942000 (October 4th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996897239?time=1443855600&compare=1443942000
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27076901 - sold for 13 pure
So, some reworked math (applying overpay on only the items that didn't require minis, bar the aussie as that sells for pure a lot):
(25 + 51 + 18 + 13 + 17) + (25.5 * 0.9 = 22.95) = 146.95, which could round to 146.
Lucky.
Thanks a bunch. Same trader bought and sold. I don't think there's any way we can really justify using one trade and not the other. Either we'll need to wait for another sale to identify the outlier or give this a wide range.