"Merry Christmas"

I dont think I have ever had this many sales. Continued my search to establish whether or not to include 25 in the range.

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for peace spartan (~18) + 12 pure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26966278 BO 28

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051149088?time=1442286768 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051149088?time=1442386800 after

0.9*18 + 12 = ~28

-> 28 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for peace tree (~25) + 5 keys + ~2 worth in sweets

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26693127 BO 30

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079275897?time=1441389314 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079275897?time=1441436400 after

Mini tree

Sold for gifted TS max (~25 ish)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076098653?time=1437116400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076098653?time=1437202800 after

Instantly resold for duped smoking modest

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070713141?time=1437116400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070713141?time=1437202800 after

clean modest has recently been updated at 29.5. At a hat this value, it should be fine to value a duped one at ~25

0.9*25 + 5+2 = ~30

-> 30 keys

Sale 3:

Involved in two sales I cannot properly identify

- Appears to be a bulk sale of sorts.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079275897?time=1438671600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079275897?time=1438758000 after

its history matches the blizzy grimm and secret birdcage, implying those were involved as well. Neither of those match the previous listed owner of the pencil.

- Difficult to determine this sale as Andrei is banned and did a shit ton of trades.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160?time=1438686193 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160?time=1438758000 after

Since histories are not going to match anyway (due to the next listed pusher owner either not being the receiving party, or being the one that bought it for abovementioned bulk sale).

This would require overly extensive research that is likely to come up empty. Gonna leave both sales out (assuming its actually 2 sales).

=================================================================================================

Sale 4:

Bulk sale phos company man

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058368538?time=1437443514 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058368538?time=1437548400 after

not usable

=================================================================================================

Sale 5:

Sold for Cmoon mongolian + neglectible sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160297463?time=1442155404 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160297463?time=1442559600 after

May be used for the mongolian, as it is evident that there's more available on this hat than on the mongolian.

=================================================================================================

Sale 6:

Sold for O.fire pusher (~26) +5 keys and metal that I will use to round up the pushers price.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27059998

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115721685?time=1442517485 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115721685?time=1442559600 after

Histories dont seem to match, but on OP they actually do:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4140542852,605,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4140856468,605,5

0.9*26 + 5 =29

-> 29 keys

Sale 7:

Cant make out this sale, none of the histories match

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177936011?time=1441350000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177936011?time=1441436400 after

Buyer doesnt reveal anything either:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160297463?time=1441436400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160297463?time=1441522800 after

Valuewise this will probably be an outlier seeing what went out of the buyers BP.

=================================================================================================

Sale 8:

QSed for 21

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26944139 created sept 3rd

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098268870?time=1441177200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098268870?time=1441263600 after

Histories reveal the item was sold either the 2nd or the 3rd. (must be 3rd since thats when the trade was created). Sold in less than a day.

=================================================================================================

Sale 9:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26857494 no clue what this sold for

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170483914?time=1440401510 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170483914 after [API down, still shows the hat in his BP]

Trader was inactive

=================================================================================================

Sale 10:

Sold for 23 pure + ~0.6 in refined

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142733199?time=1440208865 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142733199?time=1440226800 after

-> 24 keys

=================================================================================================

Sale 11:

Cant determine this sale. Buyers Bp shows nothing of value in return

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170335017?time=1438920158 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170335017?time=1438930800 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124066086?time=1438066800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124066086?time=1439190000 after

Due to the nature of the graphs and backpack histories, I assume it has been moved between either friends or alts.

=================================================================================================

Sale 12:

Sold alongside a GE buckaroos for 56 pure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26525111

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26687256

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112732000?time=1438772515 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112732000?time=1438671600 after

Buckaroos is slightly outdated at ~25, but has a seller at 25, meaning its probably not higher than that. The pusher had a BO of 30, and the amount of pure exchanged is enough to cover for the buckaroos and the BO of 30 for the pusher.

-> 30 keys

Sale 13:

May have sold for strange normal sniper rifle

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127811585?time=1441782000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127811585?time=1441868400 after

Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110725258?time=1441864094 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110725258?time=1441868400 after

The history of the keys from the seller matches the history of the sniper rifle that leaves the buyers BP.

It seems as though the rifle was sold for 18 keys, in which case this sale is an easy outlier.

=================================================================================================

Sale 14:

Complex sale for energy orb wrapped reviver

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123977468?time=1441721261 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123977468?time=1441782000 after

Cant use

=================================================================================================

Sale 15:

Bulk sale secret country

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102147946?time=1441431232 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102147946?time=1441436400 after

it may have been Zimbabwe or Ecuador, but as for now, itll remain a secret. [cant use]

=================================================================================================

Sale 16:

Sold + gifted beams hotrod for sulph conjurers

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069674214?time=1441263600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069674214?time=1441350000 after

Cant use

=================================================================================================

Sale 17:

Sold for blizzy ushanka (~27)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126130395?time=1440084135 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126130395?time=1440140400 after

0.9*27 = ~25

-> 25 keys

Sale 18:

Sold for aussie black box

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125279742?time=1439683851 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125279742?time=1439881200 after

Easy outlier

=================================================================================================

Sale 19:

Sold for 25 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26506459

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102762678?time=1438550456 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102762678?time=1438585200 after

-> 25 keys

Sale 20:

Sold for 21 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26838737

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060980015?time=1440450539 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060980015?time=1440572400 after

Went down in a few days

-> 21 keys

=================================================================================================

Sale 21:

Sold for amaranthine geezer

Sold for c9 noble(~24) + ~6keys in strange sweets

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26634337

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082852273?time=1438252292 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082852273?time=1438412400 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060980015?time=1437980400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060980015?time=1438239600 after

Exceeds BO of 26 keys

->26 keys

Sale 22:

Unknown:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145683071?time=1438453763 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145683071?time=1438498800 after

=================================================================================================

Sale 23:

Unknown 2: Un Knowner:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971403800?time=1437548400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971403800?time=1437634800 after

=================================================================================================

Sale 24:

Unknown 3: unknown with a vengeance

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039009090?time=1437450238 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039009090?time=1438930800 after

=================================================================================================

Sale 25:

Sold for peace goggled (~24)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060432025?time=1438239600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060432025?time=1438585200 after

=================================================================================================

Sale 26:

Resold in <1 day for 18:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121529257?time=1438498800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121529257?time=1438632411 after

=================================================================================================

Overall assessment:

Has provided to sell smoothly and swiftly for 25 (even QSed at 25 in less than a day). However, several other sales ~25 have occurred and BOs have been set at ~25. Despite QSing for this value, including it in the range. All pure sales below 25 were quick sales and happened relatively long ago (compared to higher pure sales) as well. A full pure sale happened at 30, alongside several other sales at 29-30, supporting this as part of the range.

Currently none for sale below the suggested range.

Im going to make a range 25-30

Constructive criticism welcome

~Foamy :3