Thanks Julia c: (and now Wolfi c:) [and now, Mr.Giang c:] {and now… Stephen ;-;}

Sale 1: (outlier)

Sold with 2 keys for a Scorching Flames Janissary Ketche, a Green Confetti Mining Light, a Circling TF Logo Crocleather Slouch, a Circling Peace Sign Dr's Dapper Topper, and a Purple Confetti Whoopee Cap

(37 + 37 + 25 + 20 + 18)*0.9 - 2 = 121.3 rounding to 120 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021228339?time=1436857200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021228339?time=1436943600

(From Wolfi, credit to him)

Sale 1 also added 2 keys and a pro ks black rose (untradeable) along with the charmers, not sure how much the black rose is since its untradeable (and really hard to find a mini for it: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27042897 unsold thats the lowest i could find). But I guess its more than 3 keys, so the sale would be 115 or even lower. I would call it an outlier with the duped sale from below.

Sale 2: (outlier)

Sold with 30 keys for a Duped Burning Charmer's Chapeau

Asuming it was offered because the other guy was cashing out (155 - 30) = 125 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989884606?time=1440831600

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989884606?time=1441090800

Sale 3: (outlier)

Sold for a Peace Rack?? Definitely an outlier, must have been cash on the side.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062885440?time=1436770800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062885440?time=1436857200

Sale 4: (Credit to Mr.Giang)

Sold for a Burning Phantom + ~65 in keys

Caps at 150 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26819164

Sale 5: (Credit to Stephan)

Sold for a Duped Beams Charmers + 20 keys

140 + 20 = 160

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25905670

http://imgur.com/zIrHGUS

Notes:

Mini for the Duped Burning Charmer's Chapeau: ~155

Took 2 months to sell with a B/o of 160 - 155, can’t tell what it sold for though

First trade with it: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25907629

then he had 4 or 5 in between

Last trade he had with it: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26135070

Taking 155

Mini for the Duped Sunbeams Charmer: ~140

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26377435 Sold for 320 USD http://backpack.tf/trust/76561197999691240 You can see he verifies in my trust score.

Caps at 140

(From Julia, credit to her)

I sold my Duped one for $240 in cash ~(130 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26670306

The same duped Chapeau sold for 100 pure + Terror-Watt Rack (capped at 130 keys) - Also had an offer of 130 pure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26418312

Conclusion:

With 2 duped sales at 130 and 140 I’m calling everything below 140 an outlier. Going 150 - 160

Fingers crossed this is the last resuggest :P Thanks to everyone who helped!