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"Frostier Justice"
Need a price on this for something else. Let the chains begin.
Listed all sales I could make sense of.
All other "sales" on this one http://backpack.tf/item/3318029062 were presumably no sales as they seem to have been exchanged between alts, with the exception of Euphoric -> Jean Robert, which is a sale for a MG hallmark, where this is being used for
The sales
Sale 1:
Sold for 40 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26588104 may have been a QS? Not sure since he and Irland seem to exchange hats extremely often
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035664616?time=1437780414 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035664616?time=1437807600 after
-> 40 keys
========================================================================================================
Sale 2:
I dont think this was a sale:
Seller:
Spellbound tungsten + 15 keys match the buyer and match in itemIDs
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107740754?time=1437646611 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107740754?time=1437721200 after
But..
Buyer:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035664616?time=1437634800 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035664616?time=1437721200 after
Several other hats match in itemIDs and come from the same seller.
========================================================================================================
Sale 3:
Offered on and sold for duped overclocked pyromancers mask (~45)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27063299 offered here
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195588013?time=1442588661 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195588013?time=1442646000 after
Mini mancer:
Sold for duped stormy pyromancer (~41)+4 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26922358 offered here
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054743055?time=1442473200 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054743055?time=1442818800 after
taking 45
mini stormy mancer:
Sold for 41 pure
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26598555
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019710414?time=1437964304 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019710414?time=1437980400 after
Taking 41
Overpay not needed as minis are in pure [and it was offered]
-> 45 keys
========================================================================================================
Sale 4:
Sold for pro ks aussie stickybomb launcher (~24) + pro ks aussie flamethrower (~25) + Pro ks aussie axtinguisher (~11) + genuine horace (~7) + pool party taunt (~3) + DCC (~2) + botkillerstuff (~1)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26977243 [thanks ;D] BO 65
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079?time=1441609200 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079?time=1441695600 after
0.9*(7+3+2+1) + 24+25+11 = ~71, capping at BO
-> 65 keys
========================================================================================================
Sale 5:
Sold for MG tsarboosh
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098436575?time=1441274798 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098436575?time=1441436400 after
Pricing tsar with this
========================================================================================================
Sale 6:
Sold for TaW war pig?
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935?time=1439708400 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935?time=1439794800 after
Probably an outlier here. Maybe the war pig needs a raise?
========================================================================================================
Sales at 40, 45 and 65. Gonna exclude 40 since it seems like a QS to me, making a range 45-65.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27091083
Theres a seller at 55 but Im not gonna rule out 65 because of it. It clearly also has selling potential above 65(as it was capped at a BO and mostly in items generally considered pure). He is currently selling at the suggested value, and has an offer approaching it, potentially even meeting the BO, offered in a week. 45-65 should be fine
Constructive criticism welcome!
~Foamy :3
Just asking, how u value Overcloacked mancer at 45? Dunno if u can base its value by the Stormy storm mancer coz u can clearly tell that the trade was more profitable for me since stormy valued at 49 and cloacked valued at 64. (those are the "clean prices" but both duped so :P). Like the guy with the overclacked mancer was extremely desperate to get the stormy and i didnt let him any choice except 1:1 and he took it. I can even send a pic if u want. But this is just me with my limited knowledge of suggesting. Otherwise seems cool :)
ohh, it seemed as if keys were added to it, since keys disappeared with the stormy mancer as well as keys being offered on the trade. If it was a 1:1 I could adapt it, but I figure it'd be close enough either way.
In general, with suggesting, hats that are either outdated or duped require a 'mini suggestion' to show their current selling potential. Since the overclocked mancer has been priced a year ago, it requires a mini (and even more so since it was duped). The value I used for the duped stormy mancer is the most recent sale I could find on it (which was for 41 keys).
Normally when a hat sells for the same hat with a different effect, such sales could be considered "direct upgrades" or "direct downgrades" (e.g if a peace sign mancer sells for a purple energy mancer, it is apparent that its no proper representation since PE is significantly higher in tier than peace sign). In this situation, stormy storm and overclocked are relatively close to each other, tier/value wise, so an exchange between both can be considered a sensible trade, even if one of them has a higher bp.tf price (even more so seeing how the overclocked mancer's price is very old).
I hope this is clear enough :P Should you have any more questions, feel free to ask ^^
Ye legit enough eventhou i dont find the super qs of 40 keys an evidence of anykind at all (as u said it yourself) (31 wiews in the trade :) and the low end just doesnt feel that sturdy. Not that it would help anything here is an pure offer of 50 keys+ if that can be counted as an evidence: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27091083. Still good enough to upgoat :)
Excluded the 40 from the range for that reason :P. Still, 2 sales around that value and the buyout at 55 makes me believe 65 flat would be too high. The trade with the offer is one of the reasons I decided to go with this range, since the BO at 55 makes 65 flat too high and the offer supports that 45 alone is too low. Therefore I believe the range is suitable (e.g it will be priced at 55, and it seems like the trade you showed will soon sell for around 55, backing up the range)