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First suggestion.
INSOMNIAC sold me a Bubbling Pencil pusher for 12 Keys and 32 Refined Metal [14], no hesitation at all.
Proof:
http://imgur.com/YrHDNKs
http://imgur.com/YTR5i2f
Side note: 2 unsolds on outpost, with no offers.
You can't get a range from only one sale
Resuggest at 14 keys flat if that's the case
Not to mention there might be other sales
where did you get 15 from?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26959743 - this one sold for 16 pure very quickly.
Suggested range is probably a bit low here. The buyer then added 9 keys for an OF tyrants.