Suggestion: Electrostatic Milkman at 19–23 keys

Price Suggestion

Electrostatic Milkman

Submitted Thu, 01 Oct 15 20:36:25 +0000 by ★ Roller

91.28%

n/a

19–23 keys

~50 keys

electrostatic

157 votes up

15 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Mon, 26 Oct 15 08:08:15 +0000 by the submitter.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

"Appassionata"

This hat is 1 of 1 duped.

Sold for Orb. Planets Vive France ~23 Keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066256641?time=1442214000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066256641?time=1442473200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26504502 - He was looking for 23 Keys when he did 1:1 with the Memory Leak Milkman. Going to cap b/o at 23 Keys here if anyone thinks the mini on the France is inaccurate.

Orb. Planets Vive France:

Sold for 23 Keys + Sweets (2 Keys) ~25 Keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066256641?time=1442559600

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066256641?time=1442646000

Sold for Memory Leak Milkman ~19 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26504502

http://imgur.com/CCaiXCN

Re-suggesting from: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55da6642dea9e9d3738b457e

Wouldn't the Memory Leak sale be valued at 21, given that the Electrostatic was presumably offered based on its owner's comment on the Memory Leak's trade advertisement?

My fault there but luckily the median would be close nonetheless. I'm just countering all the backlog suggestions that has been closed, so it will be all up to you if you want to counter. ;)

Well, I'm saving suggestion #101 for a specific hat, but I couldn't help but dig further in response to your challenge. :P

So your Vive mini is indeed inaccurate.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4119957833,216,5 - This was added with the keys, bringing the total value of the sale to somewhere above 30, with the exact value depending on whatever the Raincatcher happens to actually be worth right now.

And the 23 key B/O you mention which potentially caps that sale was for the Memory Leak Milkman. I don't think it holds any relevance to the Electrostatic Milkman/Planets Vive Le France trade.

The range here is either going to be quite wide, or an outlier needs to be determined.

Seller should be continue be looking for around that value even though it has been traded for another hat. Of course this is just what I assumed to be.

Anyways, I know something like this would happen so here's another sale which I hate because I hate new weapon skins.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26649768

Sold for FN Sand Cannon which the seller assumed that it was 20-25 Keys and this will probably support the range I'm suggesting.

People tend to want to trade up rather than sideways. Moreover, as Electrostatic is a direct effect upgrade over Memory Leak, I see no reason to assume the seller would have a like asking price. And if their B/O isn't stated, it isn't valid anyhow.

I guess the Sand Cannon sale supports your general price (assuming keys weren't actually added, which the Milkman seller did request), but your range still pretty much comes from nowhere at this point.

Got some more sales to throw at you as well.

Sale #4:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4136979937,219,5

for

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4154490981,30030,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4154490990,513,11

Above your range, clearly.

Sale #5:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4136979937,219,5

for

http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/1072174

Outdated, but assuredly supportive of your range (or of a lower range in general).

I still see substantial doubt here. A wider range seems best to me.

Eh.. In my trading experience ML actually sells better for pure than electrostatic even at the same value. Whereas aesthetically I totally agree with you, they are surprisingly close value wise in low-mid tiers. It's really hard to say anything objectively because there is exactly one hat that is up-to-date on both of the those effects - the cannonball (electrostatic = 50 keys, ML = 47 keys) and because electrostatic as a whole is being skewed by some very inflated values on a few high tier items but they are not that far apart on the low tiers.

Anyways, your concern is a valid one. Maybe leave this up for a couple weeks for some more sales.

I guess personal bias informs my judgment a bit when choosing between the two effects. I can't say I've actually ever sold either of them myself.

Anyway, leaving it open seems reasonable to me.

If that's the case, we have sales at ~20-, 20, 21, 27, ~35

Sale 4 would be around 27 and sale 5

Sale 5 was a TW Milkman w/ Sweets (~3 Keys) which should be around 20 or lower.

35 would be the sale for the Planets France, since you've fixed it. The current buyout on Outpost would prove that this sale is high.

Excluding 35 Keys from the final sale, the range would be 20-27 Keys, with the median at 23.5 Keys. My median here is 22 Keys, and IMO, I would've valued the hat at ~20-25 Keys if somebody was to offer on my hats. I guess I'll wait for more sales just to make sure then, but this really is close enough.

>>>PKS Original Mini<<<

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Original

29.63

29.4

29.41

28.37

34.5

29.63

27.8

33.64

28.75

29.59

30.16

Average at 30.08

Keys around 2.43

30.08/2.43 = 12.3 (high-end)

30.08/1.15 = 26.15/2.43 = 10.8 (low-end)

10.8-12.3 key range

Average price ~11.5 keys.

So for sale #4, 11.5 + 20 = 31.5 x .9 = ~28.

So an average of 24 across the sales being used, versus yours at 21. I think this is a relevant difference. Time will tell I guess.

Sold for Aces Glasgow Helm (18 Keys) + Sweets (1 Key) ~19 Keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169654192?time=1444546800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169654192?time=1444578485

So, sales are now at 19, ~20-, 20, 21, 27 and 35.

19-27? or removing one sale from either end and making it 20-27?