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*Vroooooooo*
http://backpack.tf/item/859733471
Sale 1) Sold for a Blizzardy Whoopee (Updated at 13.5 Then) + ~16 Keys of Skins = 29.5 * 0.9 = ~27 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081227542?time=1440658800&compare=1440745200
Sale 2) Sold for a Peace Sign Private (18) + 1 Key
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123269933?time=1442732400&compare=1442905200
18 * 0.9 = ~16 + 1 = 17 Keys
Private Mini
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122770343?time=1440831600&compare=1440918000 --- Sold for an Orb. Fire Cowl (18)
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26768152 --- 1 Month Unsold at 22 rules 27 an Outlier
Not the greatest proof, but it supports a drop. I bought mine off of SCM for $40, which translated to the seller getting around $35, or 14 keys using SCM key prices at the time.