"Insecticide"

Tricky one. Kept digging to establish a range to be as accurate as possible. If you thought this was complicated, wait till you see what I updated it for.

The sales

Sale 1:

Sold + scorching jefe for moon crones

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1437957779 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1438153200 after

Seen this sale before. Moon crones, prepare your behind! itll be updated.

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Sale 2:

Sold + burning noble for duped Cbubbles crones

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049054413?time=1438739996 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049054413?time=1438758000 after

I remember using this as a mini for the crones when the hive was still in-date, to back up the value of the crones. Guess I shouldnt use it for this

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Sale 3:

Sold + gifted burning tyro (~150) for TW crones (~380)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26564997 BO 200, tyro had a BO of 150

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1437691494 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1437807600 after

Presuming the crones was offered as it had no OP trade

0.9*380 -150 = ~190

-> 190 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for (mass)duped heart bonk (~110) + ~23 keys + specialized killstreak strange woodland warrior (Field-Tested) (~7)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27118302

B:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052373313?time=1443250800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052373313?time=1443337200 after

S:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010500057?time=1443250800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010500057?time=1443337200 after

I can only find 17 keys with matching itemIDs, but I feel like at least the other keys were involved as well, as it would match way more with what the seller asked for when it was being offered on his trade

Mini bonk

Damn, this IS massduped. It's really difficult to spot sales in this history, as its duped ~15-20 times:

http://backpack.tf/item/487384461 histories as far as all the way down to unPHOgettable still own this thing (although Terminator clearly already sold it).

There's two BO's around 100 keys on it, but both are very young and poorly bumped:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27150708

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27172320

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26967135 got offered ~120 in mixed (based on the sellers BOs, see link below) and a stormy shaman (~135, would be ~120 after overpay)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27065574

Gonna take the 120 (At BOs or after overpay) offers as the two 100 BOs are far too young and poorly bumped to flat-out decide a price on this, since, despite it being massduped, it can still pull 120+ (after overpay)

Taking 120

overpay applied in the mini

120+23+7 = ~150

-> 150 keys

Sale 5:

Seems to have sold for ~120 keys? difficult to track the sale as histories match poorly and a new taunt was bought with the keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26918675 140, asked for pure only

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043866693?time=1441942491 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043866693?time=1442041200 after

Also hard to track through the buyer.

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Sale 6:

Sold for duped scorching attendant (~140)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126546221?time=1440585930 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126546221?time=1440658800 after

Mini sale 6

Sold + [max and other sweets] (~30 total) for duped burning slug (~120) +searing yellow belt (~48)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991107072?time=1440758976 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991107072?time=1440831600 after

burning slug has 2 sellers ~120 here:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27021336

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27156384

120+48-30 = ~140

Taking 140

0.9*140 = ~125

-> 125 keys

Sale 7:

Sold for DaD belgian (~75) + Harvest nano (~92)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140358327?time=1439968029 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140358327?time=1440054000 after

Belgians new price is based on one full pure sale, not doing overpay.

0.9*92 + 75 = ~158

-> 158 keys

Sale 8:

Sold for duped burning swagman + ~10 keys in sweets

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26639090

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125789695?time=1439881200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125789695?time=1439967600 after

Mini sale 8

Mini duped swagman:

Sold for scorching stuntman (~43) + ooze inspecteur (~32) + ~85 keys in pro ks aussies

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26878117

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125789695?time=1440540845 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125789695?time=1440572400 after

0.9*(43+32) + 85 = ~150

Taking 150

150 + 10 = ~160

-> 160 keys

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Sales at:

~125

~150

~158

~160

~190

Another poorly identifiable sale with a BO of 140 that sold in a week. Taking that as a support for the (minimal) drop. Gonna exclude the high end as it is an old, rather complex sale, probably not the best reflection of this hat's value (especially since its unclear who offered, and the gifted tyro's mini is a BO, realisticly it may even be less, which would bring this sale 200+, definitely an outlier). Excluding the 125 sale as well. Based on a sale for a dupe, and removing the highest/lowest sale preserves the mean. Going for 150-160

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3