Price Suggestion
~6200 keys
moon
Unusual Crone's Dome Cloudy Moon
89 votes up
11 votes down
Advertisement
Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted by Horizon.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

"Please price the crones. Please."


Ok. here you go


The sales:


Sale 1:


Sold for scorching jefe (~600) + burning hive (~155)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25448441

B:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1437957779 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1438153200 after


S:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017901187?time=1438145660 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017901187?time=1438153200 after

0.9*(600+155) = ~680


-> 680 keys


===================================================================================================


Sale 2:


Sold for GBH company man (~140) + beams tossle (~125) + C.heart law (~550)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1439691351 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1439794800 after

0.9*(140+125+550) = ~730


-> 730 keys


===================================================================================================


Sale 3:


Bulk sale S13H coffin kit

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1443621306 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1443682800 after

Will I finally price one of those then?


===================================================================================================


2 usable sales at 680-730. Making that range.


Constructive criticism welcome!


~Foamy :3

    You know something really needs an update when Gent requests it :P

      19:44 - Foamy the Fearsome: Hello there, how can I help you?

      19:44 - |FoV| StationACE: Your life.

      19:44 - |FoV| StationACE: Is coming to an end.

      19:44 - |FoV| StationACE: :)

      19:44 - Foamy the Fearsome: oh dear

      19:44 - Foamy the Fearsome: D:::

      19:44 - Foamy the Fearsome: NOT MY LIFE D:

      19:44 - |FoV| StationACE: and I will have you fucking marked for this.

      19:44 - |FoV| StationACE: that crones

      19:44 - |FoV| StationACE: it goes through

      19:44 - |FoV| StationACE: I'm getting you marked.

      19:45 - |FoV| StationACE: end of discussion

      19:45 - |FoV| StationACE is now Offline.


      K den.

        Hey Foamy I've been an active trader of the crones so I have added some details below.


        Regards that bulk sale the MG KE was also included in the trade just at that time it was untradable at the time. If the coffin is going to be priced this needs to be included but good luck with whoever does it. The trade has a 1 of 1 never traded or priced unusual, dupes, out of dates and a shitload of heart unusuals. Personally I don't care if it is priced or not because it is now buried away never to resurface but by all means go for it.


        Regards the crone it has been in and out of my backpack a few times being traded then retraded back after a dude changed his mind.


        Original trade: http://imgur.com/Baz8TdN

        Tradeback: http://imgur.com/4jkdMtO


        Note: Both trades were done through trade offers so no discussions took place. Verify with the other trader if there are any concerns.


        I haven't done the sums but I would consider the original trade as a truer reflection of value (at least at the top end) and the tradeback as an outlier.


        Maybe a resubmission with this 3rd and 4th sale included may be needed?

          Hm, I initially didnt expect to find a sale there. Since it was moved back and forth I assumed it was brokered, switched between alts or given to a friend to use, or something in that area; hence I didnt check it.


          The problem I generally have with trades that have been reverted, is that in the end, there was no mutual agreement that held. It seems as if the buyer realized he made a bad deal, so much even that he was willing to to take less than he paid for it. Generally, when I see similar situations where no tradeback happens, but where a buyer is reselling for less than he got it for, his purchase turns out to be an outlier.


          I'd have to check effects on everything before I can judge, of course, but it seems like major parts of the trade are missing in the tradeback. To me - without checking it yet - it would seem that the initial purchase will be too high and the tradeback will be too low. Therefore I expect a value above and one below the current range [although this all depends on the value of the initial sale]. Ill check it out, but I doubt it would change the range much.


          Also, thanks for the confirmation on the kit sale. Id really like to price it, since clearly a lot more was paid than it is currently valued at. Only problem I have at the moment is that hearts neckwear that has no price (although even without it, it seems to be more already). I had the following listed:

          - Cloudy moon Crones dome http://backpack.tf/item/1210082785 (~705)

          - Duped burning flames Company Man http://backpack.tf/item/917222254 (~190)

          - Circling heart Neckwear Headwear http://backpack.tf/item/3530735491

          - Strange Poisoned shadows Anger http://backpack.tf/item/2032278920 (~250)

          - Circling heart Your worst nightmare http://backpack.tf/item/838883639

          - Cloud 9 virtual viewfinder http://backpack.tf/item/2208032029 (~113)

          - Circling heart Conjurers cowl http://backpack.tf/item/937047027

          - Circling heart Sergeants drill hat http://backpack.tf/item/379016208

          - 500 pure


          Is it this + mg ke, or was anything sent first to substitute for it? or did I miss something else?

            It was + mg ke though sadly this ke is duped adding to the complexity. For the heart neckwear you could backtrack my trades for BOs as generally with high tier pricing such as coffins close enough is good enough. Good luck though. The submission is going to drive you loco.


            Regards the tradeback by the time he sent a trade offer I had already traded a number of the items so there was quite a bit missing. Essentially you can't tradeback what you dont have. That being said I must admit I was immensely surprised to see the trade offer and the value differential was too much to ignore. Up to you whether you consider both as outliers though I still believe the original trade was a fair price and would not have traded it for less.


            Lastly if you ever come across my trades to use for submissions please be aware I never act as a broker. I trade for a friend/relative (Nymeria) as well as myself and you will see traffic between our backpacks because of this. I do not do this for anyone else.

              Been thinking that a resubmission might be needed to include the original and tradeback sales as you can't dispel them as being either too high or too low without pricing them and comparing with your range.


              Anyway your call.

                Okay, sorry for the delay in the response, but I did not have much time the past few days and Id rather make sure Id investigate everything properly. Apologies if the following seems overly extensive; just trying to be as clear as possible in my reasoning and appraising and stuff.


                First, Ive updated all hats involved in this sale that were outdated, which brings me to the following values:

                - Duped Sunbeams exquisite rack: 210 keys

                http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5615ce8bdea9e964664ac09f

                Refer to the comments left on this suggestion. I found the scorching metal modest as my mini, but the rack sale was used in this suggestion. The mini provided in the suggestion and the mini provided in the comment section are both roughly the same value. Taking 210 here.


                - Scorching flames private eye: 70 keys

                http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56298da0ba8d880d41a94a5c


                - Duped KaW BoA: 57 keys

                http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5629a27eb98d88d741e94af2

                I could not find any usable duped sales. The difference would be minimal anyway.


                - Molten Mallard hong kong cone: 77 keys

                Sold for Miami woodsman (~50) + pro aussie blutsauger (~15) + S.pro original (~12)

                http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1441845183 before

                http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1441868400 after


                - Green Energy brim full of bullets: 60 keys

                http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56296e78ba8d889e40a94a57 Sales are old, but the drop is imminent


                - Scorching Flames lucky shot: 165 keys

                http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56296189ba8d889440a94a4f


                - Purple Energy data mining light: 48 keys

                This was in-date already


                - Aussies&festives:

                Specialized Rocket: ~60*

                Specialized Wrench: ~27*

                Specialized Sniper: ~36*

                SMG: ~9

                Grenade Launcher: ~21*

                Killstreak Minigun: ~22

                Specialized Flame Thrower: ~15*

                Professional Frontier: ~15

                Strange Festive Medigun: ~22

                Total: 227

                *Total reverting sale: 159


                For these values, Ive used averages of recent SCM sales, current SCM sellers and current outpost sellers. I do this for all my suggestions, and follow their prices over time. After a while Ive gotten acquainted with what they easily sell for in pure due to suggesting.

                As opposed to some other suggesters, I do not apply overpay on australiums. To compensate for that, I find out what they sell for easily in pure, for which I've found the values above. I feel otherwise, sales involving australiums get undervalued, as many traders accept them as pure. Overpay would cause me to value the australiums beneath what quickbuyers are paying.


                Now, lets have a look at the sales you've provided:

                - The initial sale: http://imgur.com/Baz8TdN

                0.9*(210+70+57+77+60+165+48) + 227 = 845 keys

                -> 850 keys for this sale.


                - The reverting sale: http://imgur.com/4jkdMtO

                0.9*(210+165+48+60) + 159 = ~593

                -> ~600 keys for this sale.


                Now in conclusion:

                Technically I could be using these sales for the suggested range; they'd set the range, since both other sales fall within this range. This would get me a range 600-850

                These values would make sense since that would mean we have:

                - A high-end value, based on a sale that was initially agreed on, but where the buyer appeared to have regretted the trade in the end. This is a clear top-value and could therefore function as a high end.

                - A low-end value, based on a sale that was presumably valued so that it would still be easily profitable for you as person that has to resell the hats, but still decent enough for the initial buyer to take back in return. This could be a clear bottom value that could function as low end.


                The average of this suggested range would be 725.

                The average of my current suggested range is 705.

                The difference is minimal. Im basicly excluding the highest and lowest sale to tighten up the range, especially since - due to the reasoning supplied above for the high/low end values these sales could serve for - the 600 and 850 sales can also be considered outliers based on the given facts.


                If you would truly insist, I can resuggest at 600-850, including both ends in the suggestion, but I personally believe the minimal difference is not worth it (especially since I already rounded 600 and 850 up) and therefore Id be inclined to stick to the current suggested range.


                If anything is still unclear, feel free to ask.


                Also on a side note: DrugLord has told me that you'd rather not want me to price that coffin kit. If you wish it to remain priced as it is, I will respect that choice. However, it is evident that it actually deserves a raise based on your sale.

                  If you think your submission is robust enough let it ride and leave it to the pricing mod to decide. I don't own the hat anymore so it's no skin off my nose either way.


                  Regards the Stormy 13th Coffin if you want to price it go for it. Doesn't worry me either way as it is now a trophy unusual and is highly unlikely to be resold.

                I made a suggestion on the YWN and found the coffin sale as well, I'd be willing to help update a few of those hats to help in pricing it if you want

                  Sounds good; any help is appreciated. Only problem however is that neckwear, since it has no sales. Thats why I havent started yet :P

                  [Edit] oh maybe it does

                  It sold + some keys for a burning anger. Ill try to update that and then price the neckwear with that. If you did the nightmare, Ill just need the cowl and the drill and the duped mg KE that was part of the deal according to the buyer/seller

                  [Edit2:] I cant update the burning anger, only clean one hasnt sold recently apart from the neckwear sale and a bulk for a pe crones. Ill take 300 as a mini value for the suggestion

                    I was wondering why I haven't seen a price suggestion on the coffin yet. Cheers to you for wanting to price such a nightmaringly complex trade.

                    With its pricing I do think that for such a high tier unusual and the rarity of these submissions that the pricing mod will give you a bit of latitude with the prices of the more difficult hats like the neckwear. I have seen them do that before on other rarely traded hats. I wouldn't sweat too much it if you don't have it exactly spot on. I think you'll find close enough is good enough.


                    Anyway if you need any additional info feel free to add me.

            The one sale was 3 months ago. Thus invalidating it. Better try again son. Stop using outdated sales to try and destroy hat prices.


            additionally the item is being traded at quite fast rates so two VALID and recent trades would be ideal :)


            Sale 1:


            Sold for scorching jefe (~600) + burning hive (~155)

            http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25448441

            B:

            http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1437957779 before |3months ago|

            http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1438153200 after |3 months ago|


            S:

            http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017901187?time=1438145660 before | 3months ago|

            http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017901187?time=1438153200 after | 3 months ago |

            0.9*(600+155) = ~680


            -> 680


            Learn to check timestamps and trying to falsify proof. Almost certain that is not tolerated here kiddo.

              ^ Was also noticing the first sale listed was 3 months old

                ^ Was noticing Peepee noticing the first sale listed was 3 months old

                Timestamps:


                Sale 1:

                July 28th


                Date of suggesting:

                October 7th.


                lets count back months now, shall we?

                October 7th (start) -> September 7th (1 month ago) -> August 7th (2 months ago) -> July 7th (3 months ago).

                The earliest sale occurred after July 7th, and is thus valid.


                Please check out the dates yourself before blatantly accusing me. The suggestion is valid. If anything is wrong with the suggestion, you may point that out in a respectful manner, and I will happily edit anything if I made mistakes. If the suggestion is wrong, you do not have to worry. Moderators check them before accepting anyway, so incorrect suggestions do not get accepted.


                P.S.

                I do not take threats like that lightly. The fact that you have the guts to call me out here on the suggestion after that display seriously disappoints me. I hoped it was a joke, but apparently you're serious. It's sad to see you overreacting like this.

                  3 months backpack history bro bro

                    Please contact any of the backpack.tf moderators about the rules regarding this specific case. You can also ask experienced unusual price suggesters, as they will probably help you out.


                    I could explain it to you, but I have a few problems:

                    1. You clearly do not take my word for it, despite the fact that I clearly know what I'm doing, so we need to find someone else to confirm what I have told you.

                    2. I prefer not to turn the suggestion into a flamewar, or fill it with needless comments. Normally, I would discuss and explain this kind of situation in a private chat, as I have done countless times, but I refuse to unblock you, let alone add you, after the way you've called me out previously. I want nothing to do with you in ANY way.

                Looking through the proof does back it up, upvoted. sorry about the confusion

                  Upvoting the price suggestion, after discussing it with Woifilicious, the sales that Zombie showed us should not be included in the price suggestion because of the trade backs in it, 250 key difference seem to be very wired.

                    Not too sure about that ADL. I rate the upper price as solid as this was around my BO at the time and at no stage did I expect a tradeback. If the trade had sat and no tradeback offered it would have been the higher range value with no questions asked. The bottom price is therefore an outlier as he made it worth my while to trade the crone's back. The fact I was lucky should not effect the top end pricing.

                      Could also argue that as you said, you got lucky, why include the sale that is way higher than anything else?

                        The main problem I have with including this sale (or these sales, since Id either include both or exclude both) is that it is apparent that the buyer and the seller valued the hat vastly different. 600 is probably low since the initial seller took it back for this value without problems. 850 is probably high since the buyer regretted paying that much.


                        Id personally be inclined to call both outliers based on that. Since including them would barely change the mean here, I guess its fine the way it is

                          Replied back to woifilicious above. I don't see us agreeing on this but that's cool. Good job anyway.

                          Also I have no issues with you pricing the stormy 13th coffin. It does need a update.

                          Cheers.

                            Can't really agree with that argument. The price paid by the buyer was just a standard trade in that it was roughly around my BO. I was not going to trade for less. That will always make the purchase price valid. The fact that the buyer changes their mine has only clouded the issue. Maybe the dude just didn't like the look of the hat when he got it. Maybe he just missed some of his main stuff traded and was happy to lose some peripherals. Does happen.


                            Anyway it isn't my call and there is more than enough info here for the pricing mod to decide. I'm letting this rest.