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I know this isn't outdated, but a bunch of sales just happened
(Translation, I spent hours making this and realized it was updated recently)
sale #1
sold for a Haunted Ghosts Attendant
bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045041209?time=1443008413
bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045041209?time=1443078000
mini for sale #1
Haunted Ghosts Attendant
sold for 48 keys pure
bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039006400?time=1441782000
bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039006400?time=1441954800
MATH TIME for sale #1
48*0.9=x
x=43
================================================================
sale #2
sold for a Purple Energy Barnstormer
bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094964657?time=1443769200
bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094964657?time=1443855600
mini for sale #2
Purple Energy Barnstormer
sold for a [b]Haunted Ghosts Rimmed Raincatcher and a Cloud 9 Katyusha
bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083128849?time=1442372721
bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083128849?time=1442732400
micro for Haunted Ghosts Rimmed Raincatcher
sold alongside a Strange Sapper and a Specialized Killstreak Spycicle for a Scorching Flames Sober Stuntman
bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125789695?time=1441263600
bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125789695?time=1441350000
MATH TIME for micro
x+0.9(*2)=42*0.9
x+~2=38
x=36
MATH TIME for mini #2
x=36+0.9*(18.5)
x=36+~17
x=53
==================================================================
going with a range of 43-53. counter evidence or any adjustments are welcome
I should also note that the sale in the previous suggestion is now too old to use
http://backpack.tf/item/3601466599 - Added in sale #2; the names may not match, but the ID #s do
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27010840 - Kabuto was offered in sale #1 with 25 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094964657?time=1443078000 - 4 keys visible in their backpack, they bought the Spec Aussie Wrench with the rest
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083800515?time=1443078000 - The rest of the keys wind up here
Again, looking at item ID# as opposed to names in the history, it looks like 26 of the 29 keys match.
As indicated, there are some issues with this