Sale 1:

Sold with 2 keys worth of taunts (even after overpay) for Australium Force-A-Nature

Not Outpost link available

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198178445551?time=1443942000 - 4th October

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198178445551?time=1444028400 - 5th October

X + 2 = 12

X = 10 keys

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Sale 2: Not using

Appears to have sold for a Professional Killstreak Australium Force-A-Nature, as he stated he was willing to do in the trade notes, though the item histories don't seem to match. Therefore, not using.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27179509

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091133480?time=1443942000 - 4th October

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091133480?time=1444028400 - 5th October

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Sale 3:

Sold for 14.95 keys in items

This is where it gets really tricky, as it doesn't appear in the user's histories

No outpost link available

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128204195?time=1443942000 - 4th October (Current owner)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128204195?time=1444114800 - 6th October (Current owner)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129431856?time=1444114800 - 6th October (Previous owner)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129431856?time=1444201200 - 7th October (Previous owner)

The current owner appears to have sold his backpack for the hat. The problem is that the hat doesn't appear in his backpack or in the hat's history. The first link of the previous owner's backpack shows a dead presidents human cannonball, which can be linked to sale 4

The current owner has told me that he got the unusual from his friend, "Areallygoodname". I can provide proof of the chat if necessary

14.95*0.9 = 13 keys

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Sale 4: Not using

Sold for a Dead Presidents Human Cannonball?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27185497 - Aces High Gutenkutteharen

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27186749 - Dead Presidents Human Cannonball

Can't confirm if sweets were added in the trade. Therefore, not using.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129431856?time=1443942000 - 4th October (Buyer)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129431856?time=1444114800 - 6th October (Buyer)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190380661?time=1444114800 - 6th October (Seller)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190380661?time=1444201200 - 7th October (Seller)

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Sale 5:

Sold for 20 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27065150 - B/O of 20 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095335435?time=1443078000 - 24th September

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095335435?time=1443250800 - 26th September

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Sale 6: Not using

Another sale that I can't make sense of.

No outpost link available.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105717946?time=1440054000 - 20th September (Seller)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105717946?time=1444201200 - 7th October (Seller)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039809242?time=1438412400 - 1st September (Buyer)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039809242?time=1440226800 - 22nd September (Buyer)

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Sale 7:

Sold for 16 keys

No outpost link available

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009272632?time=1439449200 - 13th August

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009272632?time=1439535600 - 14th August

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Sale 8:

Sold for Aussie Black Box

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26778027

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009272632?time=1440313200 - 23rd August

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009272632?time=1440399600 - 24th August

18 keys

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Sale 9:

Sold with 2 keys for a Strange Factory New Pink Elephant

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26935820

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041976310?time=1441609200 - 7th September

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041976310?time=1441695600 - 8th September

Recent Steam Community Market Sales for Strange Factory New Pink Elephant:

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Pink%20Elephant%20Stickybomb%20Launcher%20%28Factory%20New%29

$55.90

$54.20

$54.77

$55.20

$56.38

Average of $55.29

After Gaben Tax: $48.09

48.09/2.49 = 19.31

Rounding to 19

X + 2 = 19

X = 17 keys

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Unsold at 23-25 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27065550 - 25, 2 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27054439 - 23, 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27054439 - 23, 1 week

Sales at:

10 keys

13 keys

16 keys

18 keys

17 keys

20 keys

Assuming 10 and 13 are outliers

Going with 16-20