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Let's do this.
SALES:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122186168?time=1442818800&compare=1442905200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063794921?time=1442818800&compare=1442905200
Sold for TF Logo Mohawk (Unpriced, mini at 150) + 100 keys pure
(150 * 0.9) + 100 = 235 - outlier
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27140887 Sold + G.Fetti Antlers (147) for GE Hazmat (650)
Hazmat owner had been offering previously, so fair to assume cardbeard was not offered.
(650 * 0.9) - 147 = 438 (rounding to 440)
Histories;
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063794921?time=1443942000&compare=1444114800
Mohawk mini:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038978118?time=1440226800&compare=1440399600
Sold for Hearts Brainiac (~145) + sweets
= 150
Using 150.
Calling the first sale an outlier. The set, on the second trade, was offered a MG Viewfinder, the last sale of which I can find easily was for an AF KE, which puts the cardbeard at ~400.
Let it ride.