Let's do this.

SALES:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122186168?time=1442818800&compare=1442905200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063794921?time=1442818800&compare=1442905200

Sold for TF Logo Mohawk (Unpriced, mini at 150) + 100 keys pure

(150 * 0.9) + 100 = 235 - outlier

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27140887 Sold + G.Fetti Antlers (147) for GE Hazmat (650)

Hazmat owner had been offering previously, so fair to assume cardbeard was not offered.

(650 * 0.9) - 147 = 438 (rounding to 440)

Histories;

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063794921?time=1443942000&compare=1444114800

Mohawk mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038978118?time=1440226800&compare=1440399600

Sold for Hearts Brainiac (~145) + sweets

= 150

Using 150.

Calling the first sale an outlier. The set, on the second trade, was offered a MG Viewfinder, the last sale of which I can find easily was for an AF KE, which puts the cardbeard at ~400.

Let it ride.