Suggestion: Morning Glory Bonk Boy at 160 keys

Price Suggestion

~1400 keys

morning

85 votes up

11 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Sat, 07 Nov 15 04:08:21 +0000 by polar.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Resuggesting based on Polars suggestion

Sale 1 :

Sold for a duped scorching front runner ( Clean is 185 ) ~160 + V stash

Was offered, so overpay not applied ~ 160

Mini on duped front runner : Last sold for clean green energy bonk boy ( 160) where bonk was offered : http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26345482 3rd bottom offer

~160

Histories : http://backpack.tf/item/3278539683

http://backpack.tf/item/1311619250

Sale 2 : ( Credit to Roller ) Outlier

Sold for Duped Ghosts Cold Killer (~110 - 130 Keys) w/ Sweets (~4 Keys) ~116 Keys

Mini for CK : ( Credit to polar )

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26704935 - was bought with a duped scorching AA (added 7 keys for the AA) ~110 keys for the ck

The AA, in turn, was bought with a clean beams drill hat (added 5 keys with the AA) ~115

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26635168 - frostbite bakers + DP bomber + stormy cowl + peace dead cone + 10 keys (bakers resold for ~60) ~130

So CK comes out to ~110-130 with these two sales

Sale 3 : Also outlier

Sold for Duped Stormy Bonk (~32 Keys) + Showstopper: Battin' a Thousand (~30 Keys) + Miami Sensei (16 Keys) + Duped Scotch Bonnet (~75 Keys) + Pro. KS Aussie Sticky (25 Keys) + Gifted Max (26 Keys) + PS FFF (~25 Keys?) + Duped Max (27 Keys) ~256 Keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047887998?time=1441954800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047887998?time=1442041200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26965455 - B/O of 220 Keys

This has to be an outlier, only actual offer with proof recieved, no other offers on last 3 sales came close to this

Only using the ~160 key sale

No longer for sale, at least at the moment

Tell me if I did anything wrong

sale 3 is capped at 220 due to b/o.

why aren't you doing 160-220 ? it's only a tad higher than the previous range

edit: pih polar said it's an outlier. of course

It logically follows that if 116 is an outlier, so is 220.

And I'm sure YOU wouldn't want a range of 116-160 :3

yeah but yunno http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26840577

that declined offer thoe (and that's the guy who sold it for the ck for...whatever reason)

Sale values are at 115, 160, 260. You tell me which is the outlier. Capping the b/o is a convenient way to fit things where you want them to fit, but the reality is that paying way over someone's pure b/o is often an indicator of an outlier.

oh so now we dont cap at b/o-s when it's convenient

altho i'm completely fine with ignoring someone's b/o,i dislike it being done so at specific suggestions.

We're not ignoring the B/O, it's just we're INTERESTED in the actual value of the sale to FURTHER establish it's an outlier.

ah not *ignoring it ? like you didn't* ignore my comment with the declined offer with whom i wanted to FURTHER establish an outlier ?

i get your point

*fix'd

I very definitely said NOT ignoring it. Calm yourself, pal.

It proves 116 is an outlier, yes. I don't think anybody was contesting that, and you're... upset we're NOT contesting that?

God, you're ALWAYS itching for an argument, aren't you

kek,you should calm down. you made a point,why edit with pointless additions ?

going to a personal attack rather than just presenting an argument... well yea,nothing new.

but anyways, if you acknowledge the offer you should calculate the value. 68 * 0.9 + 65 + eh outdated prices on the bonk and shako. lets say + 30 + 14

a declined mixed offer at 175 would certainly warrant 220 to be included in the range. or we are still interested in the "actual value" of the trade ? in that case sure,i have no basis to make 250~ relevant to the range. and that reasoning alone wouldn't bother me if we would always go with the "actual value" of the trade,instead of capping at a silly b/o.

eitherway,i commented to polar,not you. so you went out of your way to attack me

Why are you not putting overpay on all of that offer? Just to support your point?

It comes to 159.3 if you do.

I replied explaining something and that was all. THEN you jumped at me. Like you always do.

ah because that were realistic prices which would go fast(i did pull em out of my ass,but it's just for show anyways),so i didn't further do overpay. i did it on the KE as that's updated. however you also took overpay on the pure ? oh well

even if you take overpay on the prices i #made up# ,you come to like 170 <.> not that it matters anyways

i jumped at you ? how ? did you get that vibe because i capsed some words ? i basically just threw your comment back at you, so eh.

Wasn't aware the 65 was pure from your comment, I apologise.

Still, an offer of 165 would never justify an inclusion of 220 in a range, and as a somewhat experienced user I'd expect you to appreciate that.

You threw it back at me unnecessarily. Whereas I was just answering your question, you threw something at me for the sake of throwing something at me.

it would actually,if the ck sale didn't exist. interesting how inexperienced traders effect the price of a hat.

and unnecessarily ? i had to somehow say that the offer should be taken into consideration. and that ignoring-not ignoring or well taking the "actual trade value" at this specific time was... silly. at the topic of "Unnecessity" your edit... was unnecessary,

No, it wouldn't. A sale at 160, an offer at 165 and a sale at 220 and you'd say the 165 justifies the 220? You worry me, you really do.

in that case, what basis do we have to say 220 is an outlier and not 160 ? the current guy not getting offer when he wants 280 ?

i'm not saying we should go 220 flat,both sales should be considered.

I don't know if you are making an argument for argument's sake or if you are actually interested in trying to understand the rationale here. You have to look at all the facts presented here. When the sales are at 110, 160, and 220, you can't make a range of 110-220. You have to decide which end is the outlier. 110 is closer to 160 than 220 is and the 220 sale was someone who paid way more than that in order to purchase the hat. I have no issue with setting the high end off an offer, but based on what is provided 220 as much an outlier as 110.

i do "understand" the rationale,but i don't accept it. the inexperience of the trader is shown by him declining a clearly higher offer,i wouldn't even consider 110.

what bothers me that here the b/o is ignored. and if so it should be ignored normally,or at least - such sales should be taken the same as SCM sales. making a range with the b/o (what the seller wanted-low end ) and what the buyer actually paid (high end). while it doesn't change anything here,i'm just throwing it out as a reasonable option.

i equal b/o-s to "i think this hat is worth this much", and bp.tf doesn't/shouldn't work on "i thinks".

You clearly don't understand the rationale because you keep insisting that the b/o is being ignored.

well it's not ignored in your last post,but it was when making the initial decision on how to price it... was. going off the definition on the word "ignore"... it was. because there was the b/o and then there was what the user paid,and you disregarded the b/o to get the "actual trade value"

but eh,that's hardly relevant. because the only thing outlying 220 is the sale at 110. which as i said was due to the inexperience of the trader.

it's not like i want to change your mind,i know i can't. but eh.

Thank you white furred based polar bear

It was an outlier on my last suggestion too, The other two sellers had b/o's of way less than 220 and didnt get offers near this, Pretty sure its a clear outlier

I think the mini for the AA is way off.

I offered the ghosts CK for the AA, and then sold the AA for Ghastly Ghosts Party Trick (175) + Aussie Knife(22 at the time) and I added 5 keys

175 x 0.9 + 17 = 174.5 rounding to 175

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090737788?time=1442818800&compare=1442732400

Party Trick is definitely not 175. It sold for 175 because it was priced previously at 273 on what is now clearly an outlier sale. There's a GG party trick up for 140 currently. It's possible that the AA is closer to 140 instead of 115 as it is getting valued here and that the sale value is 130 and not 110, but that sale isn't getting included here because I opted for a more conservative change. Lots of those minis there are duped hats which tend to have sales all over the place anyways.

Sold the Party Trick + 20 keys for a duped Stormy 13th Noble, ~~no mini for the Noble tho~~, it's higher than the price above for sure

Been offered 170 for Noble, he doesn't have the keys, but looking to buy them via PP, not sure if the offer is still valid, haven't talked to him since

There's actually a sale that could be used

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065349229?time=1439535600&compare=1439449200

Here's another sale for the Party Trick

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125789695?time=1443423600&compare=1443337200

These sales for the Party Trick happened after the suggestion