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Surprised nobody did this earlier.
14 ref = ~0,9 keys
16 ref = ~1 key
Sales :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26921970 - 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26395258 - 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24428766 - 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26952445 - 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24811914 - 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26381464 - 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25362486 - 1 key
Sellers :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27018489 - 14 ref (Have 14)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26438366 - 15 ref (Have 11 tradable ones)
Conclusion :
Was going 1 key flat but can't ignore the sellers below 1 key.