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Took this from the NnB Hallmark suggestion ([ Mr ]_Le_Terminator's)
Sold for a Nuts and Bolts Hallmark (10 keys)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150101707?time=1440054000&compare=1440140400
Sold with 5 keys in items for an Aussie Flamethrower (Spec. Ks.) (16 keys). 11 keys.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051954549?time=1438930800&compare=1439017200
Taking final price of 10-11 keys
Sorry if I stole your suggestion Terminator...
those are a bit old-ish sales eh
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27141687
quicksold for 11,declined 10
too many sales at this price (my 2 plus yours) to consider them all quicksells.
kek too many,you are saying it like it's that many sales more.
and you don't need to consider them quicksells,they are plain outliers due to the most recent sale,which is a quicksell.
not only proven by the buyer,but by the declined offer of 10.
Np mate nice suggestion btw :)
Sold for Spec. Aussie FaN (15 Keys) w/ 2 Keys ~13 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197084865?time=1443769200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197084865?time=1443855600
Mini on Spec. Aussie FaN:
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Specialized%20Killstreak%20Australium%20Force-A-Nature
I normally don't mini Australiums, but since this was 2 months ago and things might have changed since the Halloween update.
Within 29/9-5/10: $36.94, $34.51, $38.87, $37.74, $36.12, $33.87, $36.99
Average: $36.43 | Valuing Keys @ $2.30 ~16 Keys
Sold for Spec. Aussie FaN ~15 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197084865?time=1443682800
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197084865?time=1443769200
Not sure why he did that. :d
In conclusion, since as this http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27141687 shows that it is quite easy to fetch 10 Keys, your range is here is too low. I'm not sure about what range you should make so the best thing is to wait until a mod responds. I would do 13-15 Keys or 11-15 Keys.
I would personally go with 13-15 here. If overpay were applied to the flame sale, the flame would end up being valued at much less, and would be as much as an outlier as 10 is.
Not to mention, both of those sales are really old now :P
Yeah, this is probably a fair bit low here