"Luck, not skill"

Okay so Ive been requested to investigate two sales involving some outdated hats. lets first start with formally updating all hats that were not duped.

~~~ Indirectly requested by Zombie Jesus and AfricanDrugLord ~~~

The sales

Sale 1

Sold for gifted hearts rack (~146) + ~20 in sweets

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27161831

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094114508?time=1445151600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094114508?time=1445410800 after

mini sale 1

Mini rack:

Sold for duped scorching batters (~80)+ duped scorching panama (~50) + smoking otolaryngologists mirror (~10) + ~6 in sweets/keys/ref/etc

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26678196

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043566764?time=1438858560 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043566764?time=1438930800 after

miniminis:

Batters:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26327243 unsold for THREE MONTHS at 89, but has been offered 80.

Taking 80

Panama:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26823993 sold + pro aussie bb (~30) for venenata rifleman (BO 80)

80-30 = 50

Taking 50

80+50+10+6 = ~146

Taking 146

0.9*(146+20) = ~150

-> 150 keys

Sale 2:

Sold + bubbling myb (~17)+ c9 impaler (~22) + pfetti dead cone (~12) + earbuds (3)+ neglectible sweets for a RA bonk boy (~225)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27133777 offered here

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168246671?time=1443657823 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168246671?time=1443682800 after

The cone is outdated and the impaler is technically outdated as well but was in-date at the time of the sale. Their values seem accurate, and the few keys they may vary wont matter in the bigger picture here. May update them later, but i want to get this done first.

225-22-17-12-3 = ~170

-> 170 keys

Sale 3:

Wow, sold for knifestorm tyrants

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26757943 presumably offered here, lucky shot is mentioned here and had no Op trade. BO 110

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053580502?time=1440985206 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053580502?time=1441522800 after

I guess he just really wanted that tyrants.

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Sale 4:

Holy shit. He bought it for an AF rack and sold it for that knife tyrants. GG.

Sold +2 keys for AF rack (~200)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26315610 Not sure if the 150 means BO or not. Gonna assume not.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015025431?time=1440798056 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015025431?time=1440918000 after

Rounding away the 2 keys. The sale is actually 178, rounding up in the final range

0.9*200 = ~180

-> 180 keys

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Going to call the knifestorm tyrants an outlier here (as it would be 110 at its very maximum, clearly lower than all other sales. It looks like it was offered there directly after he bought it. Though seriously, why would you downgrade like that first, to sell it for that tyrants?

Going with 150-180.

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3