Sale 1

Sold with1 key for holy grail battin a thousand = 40 - 1 = 39 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27239420

http://prnt.sc/8w9epp Ty Carle for screenshot

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071805624?time=1445324400 (October 20th)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071805624?time=1445410800 (October 21st)

Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071805624?time=1445324400&compare=1445410800

• Mini on taunt:

  http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5630c93cba8d883934a94a55

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Sale 2

Sold for kill-a-watt brown bomber (49) = 49 * 0.9 = 44 keys

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051149088?time=1442041200 (September 12th)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051149088?time=1442214000 (September 14th)

Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051149088?time=1442041200&compare=1442214000

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Sale 3

Sold for 33 keys and ~0.5 key sweets = ~34 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26863842

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000836142?time=1441436400 (September 5th)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000836142?time=1441695600 (September 8th)

Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000836142?time=1441436400&compare=1441695600

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Sale 4

Sold for pro aussie sniper rifle (42-48) and ~7 key sweets = (45 * 0.95) + (7 * 0.9) = 49 keys

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004236703?time=1444201200 (October 7th)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004236703?time=1444287600 (October 8th)

Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004236703?time=1444201200&compare=1444287600

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Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27226465 43 keys, 2 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27159025 43 keys, 3 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27096553 43 keys, 1 month

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27007781 52 keys, 1 month

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Given that the 34 key sale took a while and couldn't make the 40 key BO in a couple of weeks, I think it deserves to stay in the range. Discounting the high sale at 49 due to the multiple BOs below. 39 and 44 are around the current BOs so 34-44 seems a reasonable range here. Feedback welcome.