Suggestion: Circling TF Logo Antlers at 215 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27296917 --- Law + Jefe. Both hats were most likely offered on the Antlers, given that DedAndrei is banned on Outpost.

=======> (180 + 21)*0.9 = 180 keys

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4) Sold with a Poisoned Shadows Helmet Without a Home (?) for a Cloud 9 Virtual Viewfinder (101.5) + Strange Death at Dusk Ground Control (?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1445842800 (October 26th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1445929200 (October 27th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1445842800&compare=1445929200

Keys weren't involved.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27318293 --- Antlers B/O was 300 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27304683 --- Viewfinder + Ground Control

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Mini on the Helmet: Sold for 40 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049203293?time=1444719600 (October 13th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049203293?time=1444806000 (October 14th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049203293?time=1444719600&compare=1444806000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27172690 --- Check comments

Taking 40 keys

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Mini on the Ground Control: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/561e9db0dea9e9c1454ac097

Taking 122.5 keys

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=======> (101.5 + 122.5)*0.9 - 40 = 161.9 = ~160 keys

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Offers

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27326483 --- Many proven offers above 180 keys (especially the PE Rotation + adds, and the Stormy 13th Brown Bomber).

Sellers

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27345705 --- 240 keys (young)

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27233619 --- 300 keys for two weeks.

Summary

- Sales for 215, 180 and 160 keys.

- Many offers above the 200 key mark.

- Sellers for 240 and 300 keys.

I will take 215 keys flat, because 160 and 180 are most likely outliers given the offers Korny got while selling it. Anyways, these sales support a drop.

Criticism appreciated!

Second sale s Qs, 3 th sale knife was added with law & jefe .

Yeah i supposed something else was added but couldn't prove it. I will later check the sale again.

Just to confirm, was the knife a Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) ?

And did you sell it already for something that could be tracked? I would do a mini taking in account Steam Market price, but i have no idea if that knife had any special pattern or something that makes it worth more.

U right about knife . Got ~ 80 for it in tf2 items+15 tf2 keys

I'm guessing that the TF2 items were a Kill-a-Watt Kiss King + Festive Medigun + 15 keys + a lot of minor items, right?

I'm in full detective mode now lol.

u right again

Thank you very much. I will do the maths and see where they take me.

Actually, one last question. What was your B/O on the Antlers? Was it near the current price of 247 keys? The final price i'm getting is 270 keys, but it seems a bit high.

275 was my b/o

Great, nothing can be done there then. Thanks, ~~resuggesting in a second.~~. Leaving this open for a while to get feedback.

The offers you counted are wrong. the rotation+ adds offer wanted him to add his poisoned helm.Bomber offer after overpay would come to ~180. The other offers include duped or outdated hats and is not worth the trouble. This was also offered on my anti freeze ground control, which i declined. I dont see an issue with taking a range of 160-180, or 180-215 here.

Bomber isn't outdated yet at 217 keys, so that offer would be right above 200. Taking in account that, and the fact that a knife was added on DedAndrei's sale, 160 is most likely an outlier.

I will try to fix third sale and get exact numbers out of those offers as soon as i can.

Ok, here's what i found about these offers.

1) PE Rotation (?) + Aussie Sniper (~33 keys) + EHP Translator (one for sale on SCM for 12-13 keys) for Antlers + Helmet (40)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27333827 --- PE Rotation for 150 pure, already got offered that amount

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27313620 --- PE Rotation for 200 pure

Taking mid range on the Rotation: 175 + 33 + 12.5 - 40 = 180.5 keys = ~160 after overpay.

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2) Ancient Codex Space Mann (one for sale on SCM for 70-80 keys)

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3) Cloudy Moon Brigade Helm: can't find a mini, and it's 2 years outdated.

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4) Duped Sunbeams Samur-Eye: a lot of bulk/unpriced/untraceable sales here http://backpack.tf/item/360071340 . It's 5 months outdated at 290 keys, i don't think the duped one will be worth much less than 200. Not using this anyways.

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5) Stormy 13th Bomber. It isn't outdated yet at 217 keys. Since the Antlers were offered, no overpay and the offer would round to 215 keys. Anyways, the Bomber was sold recently for a Frostbite Cone (~195) + FN Sand Cannon (~17 keys) + ~5 keys in sweets, which puts it at 217 keys again.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063919822?time=1445670000&compare=1445756400

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6) P.E. Rotation. Around 175 keys as i said above.

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7) Duped Knifestorm Modest (?) + Smoking HWNN (~16 keys)

The Modest was traded for a Haunted Ghosts Deep Cover Operator (outdated at 285 keys), which has 2 "quicksellers" for 245 keys on classifieds. It will most likely be around the 200 key mark.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123368951?time=1444460400&compare=1444546800

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So at the end, 160 keys is most likely an outlier. I will do the maths with DedAndrei's sale and resuggest with that one.

Wait. So sales at 160, 217 and 270 (from the new knife information). Offers at 217, 160, 175, and two that supposedly are around 200 bases off guesstimates of dupes, and youre going to take 270 in the range with 217 but not 160?

Given the offers above 160, that is most likely an outlier. 270 feels high to me, but i can't tell if that's an outlier as well (the 240 key seller is way too young).

Anyways, i will leave this open for a while to get more feedback.

Yeah leave it up I guess. Darn I should have taken the offer when I had it.

I would probably go 180-215. There are two sales under 180 that are already getting counted as outliers.

The thing is that the 180 sale is really 270, because a CS:GO knife was added (i have a proper mini done on that one). Should i resuggest to 215-270?

Oh. I get it now. I was confused about where the 270 was coming from. Didn't read carefully. This might be okay then.

Quick question. I had to resuggest the Frostbite Cone, so the Sale involving the Antlers is now 200 keys instead of 215.

Taking that in account, i have sales for 160, 200 and 270 keys. Should i resuggest to 200 flat, or 200-270? (160 is most likely an outlier given the offers i explained above. 270 also feels like an outlier, but i can't prove it).

It's on the market, so it might be best to see if it sells for another week

The one that is on the market right now has been unsold at 300 keys for over 6 months: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25870780

The other one had a B/O of 245 and sold for an Ether Trail Prehistoric Pullover (unpriced):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197987068609?time=1447056000&compare=mostrecent

Edit: Anyways, i will leave this open. If the Frostbite Cone suggestion gets accepted, i will probably resuggest to 200 flat and then wait again.

In case someone is wondering why is this still open, i'm waiting for either one more sale on the Antlers, or more sales on the Ether Trail Prehistoric Pullover. I have gathered some sales on that one, but are mainly SCM (quick) sales below 170 keys and another for a Chiroptera Bomber which is 1/1 with no recent minis, but should be around 200 keys as well.

Judging by B/Os on Outpost, its value should be around 200-240 keys, but i'm waiting on a sale to use as a mini (the Pullover is a very common hat and should be used to price this one instead of the other way around).

Plot twist: one of the Antlers now appears as duped http://backpack.tf/item/3488502166 . Sales for 200 keys in unusuals (previously 215) and Prehistoric Pullover happened before it appeared as duped, though.