Suggestion: Nuts n' Bolts Liquidator's Lid at 13 keys

Price Suggestion

~9.5 keys

n&b

59 votes up

20 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Tue, 03 Nov 15 21:59:43 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

Alright, so this is my first attempt at pricing an unusual, so things might get a little dodgy.

Seller

Outpost

13 keys, up for 9 days but poorly bumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27304398

Unsold

15 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27266278

I've read the part about B/Os in the following guide, but the drop isn't 15% (it suggests 31 to 30) and the seller isn't "reasonably bumped", so i'm not too sure if this drop is necessary.

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/

I am aware that I might be doing something completely wrong, so I would very much appreciate feedback on this!

For unusual items, it is better to rely on sales rather than sellers. The buyout rule for unusuals was introduced to lower hats that had severe price raises due to the bud-key conversion.

There seem to have been some sales on this recently:

http://backpack.tf/item/1929005475

http://backpack.tf/item/4209632711

http://backpack.tf/item/4094619677

I would advice you to look into those sales, and see if you can determine what they sold for. If you have any questions about that, feel free to ask

Yeah alright, thanks! I checked their outpost pages, but none have any recent sales on this item. I'm guessing the only way is to add them and find out? Correct me if i'm wrong.

no no no no no... look at the links he gave you and find sales there

The history links show when the item was last seen in someones backpack, and thus when it was exchanged in the past. You can compare the backpacks during the sales.

Example:

http://backpack.tf/item/4094619677 Click on the date in the "last seen" column to open Dynamiteluke's backpack when it was sold. Compare it to the day after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053720151?time=1444114800 (oct 6th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053720151?time=1444330388 (oct 8th)

In this case, it seems to have sold for that c9 helmet without a home, but histories dont match with the next owner.

If you check the next owner around the same time:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058600622?time=1444287600 (oct 8th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058600622?time=1444374000 (oct 9th)

It seems like he paid 11 keys for it.

A clearer example:

http://backpack.tf/item/1929005475 Same tactics, spooksaredank's backpack:

It sold for the Killawatt billycock

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143591462?time=1443388070 (Sept 27th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143591462?time=1443423600 (Sept 28th)

Histories match with the buyer:

http://backpack.tf/item/3953587505

His backpack:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004307191?time=1443344689 (Sept 27th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004307191?time=1443423600 (Sept 28th)

Double-clicking on the lid reveals that the botkiller rocketlauncher, botkiller flamethrower and muffler were involved (Roughly 4 keys in sweets)

The billycock has an old value and is not really usable here, but at its old value, it would support a value of 11 keys here.

You can repeat the process and check the sales. Not all exchanges will make sense (In the first item history, all exchanges to a "sweetstakes" bot are no sales for example.

Sometimes, the "last seen" date is not exactly valid. In that case, you can continue comparing dates until you see the hat disappear.

[Edit]

Another sale at 11:

Miami nights basemetal billycock (~12)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105403049?time=1443250800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105403049?time=1443337200 after

http://backpack.tf/item/1929005475 lid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,4167879807,30007,5 billy

0.9*12 = ~11.

based on this, 11 would be a more appropriate value here

Amazing, that really cleared things up. I'll keep that in mind for next time, and thanks again for putting down the time and effort in helping me out, I really appreciate it. I probably could have figured this out myself if only I wasn't so lazy, but this way I learn from the best! Have a good one!

No problem, good luck with your future suggestions!

The rule with using sellers to drop unusuals are as follows

•there must be no sales if you want to drop with sellers alone (which I can guarantee you there are plenty of sales)

•change must be a 15% change if dropping with sellers

I'm pretty sure there are sales. Use those instead