SCM supports a drop

Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27376579 - 8.5 Keys - 3 Days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27393227 - 8 Keys 8 Ref - 1 Day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27289569 - 8 Keys x2 - 2 Weeks - Assuming he dropped his price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27401021 - 8 Keys - Young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27395037 - 8 Keys - 1 Day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27371181 - 8 Keys - 4 Days - Unbumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27399020 - 8 Keys - Young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27396784 - 8 Keys - 1 Day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27396604 - 8 Keys - 1 Day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27393512 - 8 Keys - 1 Day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27391518 - 8 Keys - 1 Day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27287177 - 7 Keys 14 Ref - 2 Weeks - Assuming he dropped his price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27393432 - 7 Keys 12 Ref - 1 Day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27401085 - 7 Keys 10 Ref - Young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27391788 - 7 Keys 4 Ref - 1 Day - Unbumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27398077 - 'backpack.tf price' - Young

Classifieds:

http://imgur.com/a/O424e

x1 7 Keys

x1 7 Keys 8 Ref

x1 7 Keys 12 Ref

x2 7 Keys 13 Ref

x1 7 Keys 14 Ref

x1 7 Keys 16 Ref

x9 8 Keys

x1 8 Keys 7 Ref

x2 8 Keys 8 Ref

Conclusion:

There are considerably more sellers at 8 Keys or below than above. While several may be young, the sheer number of sellers should be enough for a drop. 8 Keys is the most common trading point, taking a flat range of 8 Keys.