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Re-suggesting due to seller in link 3 verifying sale at 15 keys
sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/257484448 40 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27396646 25 keys (sold in less than one day: see below)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/257484606 taking offers; hidden c/o of 15 (Seller verified sale at 15 keys)
buyers and sold (these 3 links represent one sale)
http://imgur.com/5qPGGb0 25 keys
http://imgur.com/6Ey6Up1 proof of sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27396646 offer to sale at 25keys
Seller from link 3 above verified sale at 15 keys
These are rare and expired; thus, sales are limited.
Because they are a usable item they are consumed immediately upon the trade, thus they are not traceable. In addition, most are held on alts, so they will not be seen in the traders bp.
The items traded for are also not traceable as the traded items are also placed in the unknown alts bp.
disclaimer = I own some
I could just buy a quicksell for 5 keys right now and watch my BP value skyrocket
But I'm too lazy :p
Good luck trying to do that.
Why is it taking so long for this suggestion to be accepted? All the other ones went through very quickly.
Good ?. Exactly why bp isn't accurate in a lot of cases, especially rare items to include some unusuals. Notice how pricing pressure is always down. That is due to the formula used to calculate trades, which basically devalues everything by 10% each time traded for other than pure...major flaw!!! To your ? I provided evidence of trades, but withheld my buyers, standing true to wanting to be transparent it was asked that I provide personal trade info publically. I won't do that without my buyers permission...so we are at a stand still. I offered only evidence of trades for pure and trades where public offers were made, they wanted more. This is not a commodity or regularly traded item, but rather a niche market: trades are few. If bp were truly interested in establishing true ranges all these footprints suggestions would have already been approved. The fact that there are no sellers but me simply proves that there are no sellers willing to sell at bp or even my price; making me the low price. A true pricing system updates in real time, that is not an option here as folks give of themselves to make this happen (which is appreciated and helps with commonly traded things). In any case pricing updates should occur within 24 hours. Lack of this kills the economy and verges on manipulation itself, as I receive requests to buy at "the correct price" (meaning bp)regularly. The correct price is the price sellers meet at. A buyer offering bp is not a meeting, it is following, especially in this case, a perceived standard that allows the buyer to take advantage of delays in pricing or those who don't know the market. I don't own 400 of these and few are advertised for trade; proving that potential sellers have no desire to enter the market. The buyers are there because offers are being made. This spell basically, with research, will allow you to make a one of a kind item. It is also very rare and getting rarer. Yet 25 keys is ridiculous...why don't we compare that to the KE that recently sold for 6600 keys or pans for $5500?
Well, if this hasn't been approved yet is either because a) A mod hasn't reviewed this yet (there are many suggestions open, but only a few mods), or b) Mods are waiting to see how the market evolves before taking a decision. There is no manipulation here, just check all those unusual suggestions that are left up for 20+ days.
And applying overpay on item sales is the right thing to do. It's as easy as this example, if someone offers you an unusual worth 25 keys, or 25 keys pure for your spell, which one will you take? I'm 99.99% sure you will take the 25 keys pure. Multiplying by 0.9 is a way to take in account the difference between pure and items, although in some cases that number isn't right (some sellers ask for more/less overpay).
The referred to manipulation is unintentional and results in the downward pressure. Do a search for quickbuyers and you will see the dramatic increase over the last few years. Why, because the pricing model used applies too much downward pricing pressure and those traders can only make profit by quickbuying.
Second point. The basis of this model says that you must use buyers as the main pricing point. In the case you examine above you present a pricing model that is based on what a seller is willing to sell at. This combination of using the seller data when I want to or using the buyer data when I want to leads to inaccurate suggestions when balanced against pure trades. This model clearly states the buyer data is what is important. As a buyer my 25 keys in items is just as valuable to me as my 25 keys pure. I then have to decide if I value the item I am offering on more than I value my items. This model, being based on buyers, should tend to raise the value of items until more supply is introduced...it doesn't, it applies serious downward pressure with every trade as pure is not the usual item (yes pure is also an item and it loses 25% of its value when converted) used in our trades (item offers are.)
Your third point, The mods work very hard to keep this clean. They have lives and should not be expected to continuously moniter the suggestion threads; the owner and paid employees (if any) should be expected to maintain the pricing in real time (or as close to as possible) because bp.tf presents itself as the pricing guide. In this case pure trades were offered as proof, it was reviewed by a mod, and based upon their opinions/desires/feelings they have chosen to sit on the suggestion rather than act in the manner the market clearly shows is correct. This delay again leads to the unintentional manipulation, because as new people enter this market they look at the pricing structure presented to them by bp.tf, they trust that information is correct and up to date, and then they sell their item at less than true market. In turn that sale is then used to prove the suggested price (which shows 2 sales in pure) is incorrect. The result is new guys being taken advantage of and increased downward pressure.
Overpay should not effect a pricing model based on the buyer, by "psycho-analyzing" a seller's motives. As a buyer I value my items at their pure amount, i.e. I don't look at my 25 key hat and say "HHHmmm...I think I'll trade this for 15 keys." I want a 25 key value for it (as a buyer)
There is no doubt that your price increase suggestions have enough proof to be accepted, just a bit more time might be needed to identify outliers if that's the case (15-25 might be a bit wide). Mods tend to leave some suggestions open for a while to see how the market develops. And given how many items exist in TF2, nobody can expect bp.tf to have them all up-to-date because it's almost impossible.
I don't really understand what do you mean by "using buyers or sellers as the main price point". What i meant to say with my example is that pure is a currency, therefore valued higher than items. Almost every seller on Outpost (really, almost everyone) wants overpay if paying with items and will take 25 keys in pure instead of 25 keys in items 99.99% of times. How the does the buyer value his items doesn't really matter in this case, as he is who is offering to the seller. You might value your 25 keys unusual (for example) for that price, but the seller only values it at 20 keys because it will be harder to resell. If the buyer then adds 5 keys to his offer, does it mean he paid 30 keys pure for the spell? No, you would have to take in account overpay and most likely cap the sale at 25 keys pure (assuming that was the pure buyout).
So the main point on applying overpay is to get the "pure value of an item", which in most cases is lower than their backpack.tf price.
"which in most cases is lower than their backpack.tf price". Exactly! Now do 10 trades, and the subsequent calculations, for that same item and you can see the downward pressure built into the formula. Now, you can't calculate every trade as a 10% decrease though, because with each additional 10% decrease the actual decrease affecting the market price will also decrease as it relates the the item for trade. This is more true because trades usually include items. I have several sales of the horseshoes spell for 80-~110+ keys in items...how do we value that?
"using buyers or sellers as the main price point". I was jumped here a long while ago and told seller opinions did not matter, only the buyers willingness, and the price point they were willing to place on the item, matters. A trade to include overpay simply proves that the buyer is willing to devalue their items true worth in order to gain the new item. Thus the value of the new item actually is more than the bp.tf price to that particular buyer. If we are going to use buyer information we have to use it properly, not the seller's agreement to accept the overpay. The seller accepts overpay to make profit. The buyer pays overpay because they want the item and value it higher than the asking price (which they probably couldn't afford in pure, but that is another, much more complicated, calculation that would have to include the entire community.)
In short consider the seller a wholesaler and the buyer the common consumer. Your example makes the wholesaler's price the true value, when (because this model is based on the consumer) it should be based on the buyer. We can't set prices based on the consumer one day and then use the wholesaler's value the next. -Overpay=wholesaler value...not that I am against overpay; we just have to determine if this is a buyer controlled model or a wholesaler controlled model. Excellent conversation btw : )
p.s. consider this: overpay = the seller's extra profit and their pay for re-selling the item. The seller still gets the value they wanted for their item.
I do understand your point, that applying 10% overpay will cause prices to go constantly down. But items don't always sell the same way. Sometimes they will sell for pure, others for item overpay and others as part of an overpay for another item. I think it's safe to assume that there won't be a constant decrease in prices unless the market forces it (a lot of sellers for the same price, low amount of buyers, etc.). If the price has to go up, it will go up with or without overpay, as you have shown with your suggestions.
About who "rules" the market, actually it isn't ruled by sellers or buyers only. Most sellers look for profit, but so do buyers. You just have to check classifieds here to see quickbuying prices (really low prices). Sellers will try to sell for the highest possible price, buyers will try to do it for the lowest. They just have to come to an agreement, which is what we mainly use as proof here. We can't just price based on sellers or buyers alone because of that, except some cases (buyers for above current price, or sellers for below).
A buyer might "undervalue" his items when paying above the pure B/O with items, but it's due to how the market works. Since most sellers ask for overpay, the buyer will be forced to do exactly that if nobody is going to pay full prices. The same goes with sellers, they can value their items at full prices, but if nobody pays that amount they will have to go down.
The main point here is that there has to be a difference between an easily traded item (keys) and another that requires more time (items). Whether 10% is or isn't the right number is another discussion, which would take a really long time lol.
Ideally, each unusual would get two separate prices, one based entirely on pure sales and another based on unusual trades with no applied overpay. In the absence of such a model, the current system of applying overpay is better than not doing so. You can't count a burning modest (or scorching or beams stash) which sell for 300 pure easily the same as a Shadows BpA for example which is listed at 315. There's a huge difference between what hats can sell for in pure and what they can sell for in unusuals and applying overpay is better than not applying it at all. Does this give a devaluation over time? It hasn't in the last 3 years due to artificial corrections that seem to get made every year. Earlier this year it happened with the conversion from buds to keys. Last year it was correction from USD to buds. The concern is a valid one and is certainly a downside of pricing things as is, but the alternative is worse.