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Second straight hat I'm updating with a SCM sale.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27237990
http://i.imgur.com/UEAsJBq.png
I received $104.35 and the seller paid $119.99, with the key prices over the time period fluctuating around 2.38, that would be a range of 43.8-50.4, but I was willing to take 42, so I'll be using that as the low end for this sale.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064273342?time=1447401600
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064273342?time=1447574400
Bicorne appeared to be used in a 4:1 trade for a Beams Cowl, trade is too complicated on the Bicorne side to be used to price it.
http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Buccaneer%27s%20Bicorne&quality=5&tradable=1&craftable=1&effect=37&page=2
Current seller is looking for 47 Keys, which falls into the middle of the range.
Honestly not sure if 42-47 or 42-50 is the better range to use here, going with 50 as the high end for now though since the buyer was willing to pay that much to get this hat.
Was your b/o up for 3 weeks at 42? If so, I would go with 42 flat here.
I honestly don't remember. My pricing habits when it comes the the SCM say no, but educated guesses are still guesses. If you can check removed classified listings you might be able to check, but I tried trade.tf and it doesn't list trades that far back.
I'm unsure why 42 flat would work though, the seller was willing to pay 50 evidently.
Paying more than your b/o in keys is overpay by definition. He could have bought it for 42 keys but, out of convenience, he chose to overpay for whatever reason. That is overpay in its purest sense.
If you had a young b/o at 42, that's one thing. But if it was sitting there for weeks with no offers on a b/o of 42, this definitely shouldn't be more than 42.
Last time I used a SCM sale, this was how I was told to do it though: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5537d553ba8d88f13b8b5800
I can resuggest at 42 flat, but I'm just very confused at how I'm supposed to price SCM sales going forward, and I use the SCM a lot so I'll most likely run into a sale there again.
Your method is absolutely right for most situations. But we prefer if suggesters cap the sale at their pure b/o because paying more than that is overpay by definition. Paying more than the b/o is usually out of convenience to that particular buyer and is not reflective of the hat's value to everyone else.