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Sale #1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27192688
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082745608?time=1444546800&compare=1444719600
Offered with 3 keys on PE Larrikin (no overpay) -> x + 3 = 38 -> x = 35 keys flat price
Sale #2
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057175622?time=1444978800&compare=1445065200
Just appears in bp, probably bought on SCM regarding the trade desc here http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27225125
Sales didn't exceed 18 keys at the time -> outlier
Any pertinent comments are welcome.