"Tonight you will witness it all"

"When united we come to the land of the sun, with the heart of a dragon we ride"

It has been tried a few times, but I feel the previous suggested range would undervalue this. I ran into this hat two times now, and have been asked to do it

Hold on to your buttcheeks, because if youre going to review this, youll be in for a treat. dupe-minis, duped sales, impossible suggestions that are good enough to be a mini, my personal opinion, outlier reasoning, and more sales than youll find on any godtier; this suggestion has it all.

Credits to Randy, Jacob, Koala, AfricanDrugLord, MotherGaia, Yaweh, Baconlessness, Dedandrei, Gtking and everyone I may have forgotten for their imput, screenshots, confirmations and everything needed for this suggestion! whether it was direct confirmation to me, or comments on the other suggestions. Youre all awesome.

The sales

Sale 1(duped):

Sold for hearts tc (~212) + scorching honcho (~130) + duped beams tossle (~100) + 40 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041162643?time=1443682800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041162643?time=1444028400 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041162643?time=1443682800&compare=1444028400

mini sale 1:

Mini tossle:

- Qsed for 90 pure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27111983

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099481645?time=1443250800&compare=1443337200

- Cant really find out this one

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203068815?time=1442905200&compare=1442991600

- Sold for 95 pure:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27015959

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049847929?time=1442041200&compare=1442646000

- Sold for peace gibus (~115 based on sellers) + 7 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041162643?time=1444287600&compare=1444719600

0.9*115 +7 = ~110

On average this is ~100 after overpay.

Taking 100 for the tossle

0.9*(212+130) + 100 +40 = ~450

-> 450 keys

Sale 2[Credits to Yaweh!]:

offered on and sold for GE stash (~190) + dbd TC (~113) + PE buto (~100)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040902095?time=1442991600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040902095?time=1443078000 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040902095?time=1442991600&compare=1443078000

https://imgur.com/FSCBmhj

Minis sale 2:

Stash:

I was gonna update this but it was hell.

"Sale 1:

Taking 190 for the stash

Offered, no overpay. 190+100+113 = ~400

-> 400 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for SBTWC charmers (~140) + duped hearts batters + c9 bonk boy (together 95, see mini) + grail oblooterated (~50) + fountain batting (~41) + TS max (~29)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27038920

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760?time=1442214000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760?time=1442300400 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760?time=1442214000&compare=1442300400

Minis sale 3:

Mini batters + bonk:

Sold + fountain batting (~41) for stormy headsplitter (~65) + GE slug (~69) + ~2 in sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197985236586?time=1442646000&compare=1442732400

65+69+2-41 =~95 for bonk/batters

Taking 95 for bonk+batters

I couldnt find clear/usable sales on the oblooterated. Since it was technically in-date at the time of the sale, I guess it should be fine.

0.9*(140+50+41) + 95 + 29 = ~335

-> 335 keys

Sale 4:

I really cant figure out this sale:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030214998?time=1441004400&compare=1440918000

============================================================================================

Sale 5:

Sold for burning tyrants (~245) + scorching baker (~90)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041124704?time=1445065200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041124704?time=1445324400 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041124704?time=1445065200&compare=1445324400

Histories are weird due to the bptf bugs and downtime half-october. Seems like the buyer bought those two hats for ~310 keys + GE tyro (~50) from Polar (who I assume can confirm or correct this)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053638637?time=1445238000&compare=1445324400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995915986?time=1445151600&compare=1445324400

Both support a value of ~350 for this sale

-> 350 keys

Sale 6:

Sold for schorching rack (~313) + 82 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26866883 BO 350 (but I have heard this BO was lowered on the way)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024085240?time=1442732400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024085240?time=1442818800 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024085240?time=1442732400&compare=1442818800

As seen on this suggestion, confirmed by Baconlessness, who offered before:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56253c4fdea9e95a4a4ac073

He offered 350 on Sept. 16th, indicating the BO was less than a week old when he took the offer. Regardless, capping this at 350 keys

-> 350 keys

Sale 7 [Credits to Koala!]:

Sold for grail skullcracker (~130) + duped ghosts modest (~70) + logo mongol (~13) + cool pro ks spark of life (Minimal wear) (~75) + spec ks banana (~20 at that time, estimation) + 90 pure

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101210182?time=1442991600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101210182?time=1443078000 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101210182?time=1442991600&compare=1443078000

http://imgur.com/ZSn8Uja

Minis sale 7

Modest:

- Sold for 51 keys + burning bombing run (~35)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27165668

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052250908?time=1444546800&compare=1444806000

~85

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27050867 seller had a BO of 70. Taking 70 here

Taking 70 for the duped ghosts modest

Spark:

Sold for ~75 here (65 keys + ~10 in sweets)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971125672?time=1443510000&compare=1442991600

it costs rougly 90 to make one (buy the kit and the gun from SCM, based on sales), so 75 should be decent

Taking 75 for the medigun

0.9*(130+70+20+12+75) + 90 = ~370

-> 370 keys

Sale 8:

Sold + duped scorching slick for duped ghosts noh

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101210182?time=1443078000&compare=1443164400

Not using

============================================================================================

Sale 9:

Sold for GE cone (~290) + ~15 in sweets

B:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960269630?time=1446451200&compare=1446537600

S:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037947834?time=1446451200&compare=1446537600

At first glance Id say Im missing something, but I on second thoughts I guess the cone is just overvalued by both parties, looking at the buyer's cone post:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27390625

0.9*(290+15) = ~270

-> 270 keys

Sale 10:

Sold + beams TB + steaming hot dogger for ooze KE

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005249712?time=1444978800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005249712?time=1445065200 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005249712?time=1445065200&compare=1444978800

Should be used for the KE. Ill probably make that suggestion in-sync with this one, to give an indication of the TC's value in this sale.

============================================================================================

Sale 11[Credits to AfricanDrugLord!]:

Sold for Knifestorm aviator (~180) + mallard bonk boy (~130) + misty phantom (~100)+ spec. aussie amby (~17) + spec aussie knife (~25) + aussie smg (~8) + Spec ks strange sapper (~10) + Spec ks collectors dead ringer (~15) Red Roscoe (Factory New) (~7) + Thunderbolt (Factory New) (~16) + Purple range (Factory New) (~6) + Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New) (~15) + Stattrack p90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) (~3)+ Other skins (~3)+ + 92.5$ in paypal (~50)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27363793 buyer put it back up for sale at 500

B:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070566817?time=1445756400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070566817?time=1445842800 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070566817?time=1445842800&compare=1445756400

S:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543?time=1445756400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543?time=1445842800 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543?time=1445756400&compare=1445842800

Paypal has been confirmed by both parties involved, but ive been requested not to post screenshots in public. I can arrange them if needed.

Trade: http://i.imgur.com/V9gL6i3.jpg

Minis sale 11

Phantom:

No usable recent sales. Only other recent sale was + knifestorm marauder for duped burning anger as far as I could see. I know one recently got offered a CV HoC (~110). Last sale was for planets hazmat (only little bit outdated at 120, sellers at 115)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26666374

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070566817?time=1439017200&compare=1438930800

Current seller asks 100, so Im going with that

Taking 100 for the phantom

Values of the skins, spec ks items and CSGO items are based on SCM sales. The C. dead ringer doesnt really have sales, so I added the kit price to the deadringer price (which should be close enough given the total value of the sale

0.9*(180+130+100+17+25+8+10+15+7+16+6+15+3+3) +50 = ~580

-> 580 keys

Sale 12 [Credits to Randy!]:

Sold for a duped burning pot (~120) + duped burning CM (~220) + PE noir (~47)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068100327?time=1443682800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068100327?time=1443769200 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068100327?time=1443682800&compare=1443769200

Minis sale 12

Mini pot:

sold for hearts tyrants (~94) + 30 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133953011?time=1447142400&compare=1446969600

Close to recent clean updated value, gonna take that (~120)

Taking 120 for the pot

Mini CM:

Referring to this mini here:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/563681b4ba8d883f6fa94a4f

"Company man (Credits to AfricanDrugLord for screenshot/sale):

[i]Total: ~244

This has been for sale at 190 for quite some time. Seller has removed his buyout, but is still selling. Refer to minis here:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56168519ba8d889a28a41d07

Gonna average both values to 190-245 = ~220

Taking 220"[/i]

Taking 220 for the company man

0.9*(220+120+47) = ~360

-> 360 keys

Sale 13:

Sold for duped C.moon buto (~205) + duped hearts PE (~55) + duped hearts fro (~43) + planets tyrants (~16) + 95 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160?time=1443596400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160?time=1443682800 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160?time=1443596400&compare=1443682800

Minis sale 13

Mini buto:

- Sold for V.alien parasite (~115) + scorching baker (~90) + 2 lowcrafts + ~15 in sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037947834?time=1446188400&compare=1446274800

parasite value:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55d5a154b98d880c6f8b459c See comments

~220 w/o the lowcrafts. Lowcrafts will make up for overpay

- Sold for AF buto(~150) + vivid ywn (~40)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081134005?time=1442818800&compare=1443423600

Overpay done on vivid ywn

buto sold for misty tree (~120) + 30 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116543638?time=1445929200&compare=1446188400

tree has seller 120:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27375033

~190

other sales I can find on it are all sales on the gifted part of the dupe. Averaging to 205. overpay considered.

Taking 205 for the buto

Fro:

There's really nothing to go by for the hearts fro. No sales I can find on clean or duped ones. if anyone can provide them theyre welcome to. Doing double overpay to compensate for dupe

Taking 43 for the fro

Private eye:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27330821 BO 50

Sold for duped PE swagmans

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27221413 BO 60

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122047130?time=1445756400&compare=1445670000

taking avg of 50 and 60 => 55

Taking for the private eye

0.9*(55+43+16)+205 + 95 = ~400

-> 400 keys

Sale 14:

Sold + 42 keys for DaD pullover

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049054413?time=1443337200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049054413?time=1443423600 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049054413?time=1443337200&compare=1443423600

Should be used for the pullover

============================================================================================

Sale 15:

Sold for burning rack (~250) + Mega strike Fresh brewed victory (~75) + 57 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010500057?time=1442559600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010500057?time=1442646000 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010500057?time=1442559600&compare=1442646000

The fresh brewed taunt mini is 1 full pure sale at 75; no overpay

0.9*250 +75+57 = ~360 keys

-> 360 keys

Sale 16:

Gonna assume this sold for paypal:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27035763

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100926757?time=1442386800&compare=1442214000

Not using

============================================================================================

Sale 17:

Involved in a bulksale for a scorching teamcaptain

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137763464?time=1442127600&compare=1442214000

Not using.

============================================================================================

Sale 18:

Sold for duped burning CM (The sale one lol, same mini as in sale 12) (~220) + GBH company man (~140) + 40 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1439622000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1439708400 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1439708400&compare=1439622000

0.9*(220+140) + 40 = ~370 keys

-> 370 keys

Sale 19:

Sold for burning juju (~250) + miami metal scrap (~32)+ vivid conquist (~27) + phantasm mongolian (~23) stormy tyrolean (~21)+ logo bone dome (~20)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760?time=1441090800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760?time=1441177200 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760?time=1441090800&compare=1441177200

The rest was used here:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120861960?time=1441090800&compare=1441177200

Im not sure of this exact sale, but it looks likely. Itll be supportive

burning juju suggestion was an 1-sale suggestion, capped at BO, around the time of the sale

0.9*(32+27+23+21+20) +250 = ~360

-> 360 keys

Sale 20 (Duped):

Sold + 20 keys for arcana mohawk (~425) + sweets (~10)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1442559600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1442646000 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004478413?time=1442559600&compare=1442646000

425+10-20 = ~415

-> 415 keys

Sale 21 (Duped):

Sold for DaD TC (~355)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001816195?time=1442300400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001816195?time=1442386800 after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001816195?time=1442300400&compare=1442386800

The dad was probably offered on the GE tc since the dad had no OP listing

0.9*355 = ~320

-> 320 keys

============================================================================================

Other suggestions made for this:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56485c61dea9e9ea097f7652

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56466fe8b98d884572e94fcb

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/564894e6dea9e9070a7f768e

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/564870d6b98d88b410e94af8

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5648a32dba8d88ca0aa94a9e

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5648e31fdea9e901397f76aa

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5648f6d0dea9e94f3a7f76b4

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5648ef9fba8d88445ca94aab

And ~20 minis for those

~~~~SUMMARY~~~~

Okay, so there's sales (duped and clean ones) at:

270

320 [D]

335

350

350

360

360

360

370

370

400

400

415 [D]

450 [D]

580

Particular notes for specific sales:

- Sale 1 (450) may be 10 keys off due to an uncertainty in my honcho suggestion. As I havent got any response from the parties involved (1 add was ignored, the other is pending but hasnt been accepted yet). The low-end of that suggestion should either be 115 or 135. In my current open suggestion it is listed as 115, as that was the offered amount. If it turns out he paid 135 instead, sale 1 here is 460 instead of 450.

- Sale 3 (335): the return was probably slightly overvalued by the seller as the charmers was almost double what it is repriced at for the suggestion. The charmers sale that happened after this (where it sold for the HoC) as a sole mini would put this over 350.

- Sale 6 (350) was when the TC market was flooded with sellers, as Ive seen in comments on the other suggestion, when an offer was made on the TC, some of the many sellers on that market showed interest. ive seen the buyout be lowered to 350, which may be related to that

- Sale 9 (270): Seeing the sellers current outpost trade, he's highballing the cone in an allclass white energy set. He clearly values the cone higher, explaining why this is so low

- Sale 11 (580) is high and the buyer valued the TC lower than 580, as seen in his outpost trade (reselling for 500). It involved a lot of glitched item sweets and weapon skins, which generally give high values.

- Sale 19 (~360) is unsure because I cant really track the seller here. Since it's a middle value, it does not matter very much.

Based on all these sales and notes, I believe 350-450 would be suited as the range here. The sale at 580 shows a very prominent selling potential this hat still has. The wide variety in the value of the sales may be explained by the amount of team captains on the market, as mentioned in the notes (regarding sale 6), 350 was most common when the market was saturated. It would therefore be suited for a low end. Most of the high sales (e.g sale 1) arent in hard-to-sell vintages or third gens, but in good class first gen hats, meaning its value is not "relatively high because its in third gens".

Based on all of this, Im going for a range of 350-450, a little more conservative than the previous suggestions.

Thats 22000+ characters, and almost 2.5k words. ENJOY.

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3