Sale 1

Sold/offered with ~15 key sweets for pro ks energy orb minigun thing = 57 - 15 = ~42 keys

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052405938?time=1442732400 (September 20th)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052405938?time=1443250800 (September 26th)

Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052405938?time=1442732400&compare=1443250800

• Mini on minigun: - only other sale is for a none-ks

  Sold with ~3 key sweets for misty skull big elfin deal (55) = 55 - 3 = 52 keys, ks likely adds ~ 5 keys

  
  

  Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042359587?time=1442127600 (September 13th)

  Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042359587?time=1442214000 (September 14th)

  Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042359587?time=1442127600&compare=1442214000

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Sale 2

Sold for aces high bonk boy (40-45) = 42.5 * 0.9 = 38 keys

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107860996?time=1445583600 (October 23rd)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107860996?time=1445670000 (October 24th)

Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107860996?time=1445583600&compare=1445670000

• Mini on aces bonk boy:

  http://backpack.tf/vote/id/564c9278b98d885407e94f19%29

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Sale 3

Sold for kill-a-watt towering pillar (26) and orbiting fire milkman (19-20) = (26 + 19.5) * 0.9 = 41 keys

Buyer before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105488946?time=1445583600 (October 23rd)

Buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105488946?time=1445670000 (October 24th)

Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105488946?time=1445583600&compare=1445670000

• Mini on orbiting fire milkman:

  http://backpack.tf/vote/id/564c99f2dea9e9033a7f7abb%29

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Sale 4

Sold for subatomic head full of hot air (29-35) and ~1 key sweets = (32 + 1) * 0.9 = 30 keys

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105488946?time=1447747200 (November 17th)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105488946?time=1447833600 (November 18th)

Compare link: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105488946?time=1447747200&compare=1447833600

• Mini on subatomic head full of hot air:

  http://backpack.tf/vote/id/564cd937b98d88e476e95052

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Sellers and offers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27277075 50 key BO, unsold for a month, offer >40

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27315632 55 key BO, 3 weeks, no offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26831845 55 key BO, 2 months, no offers anywhere close

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27361771 54 key BO, 2 weeks, no offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27169317 40 key BO (duped), 1 month, no offers

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Not a huge amount to go on, but given the 3 sales ~40, the offer on the first outpost trade above there, and the fact that the price on the new hats is a bit unstable/odd, I'm doing to discount 30 as a low outlier and go with 38-42.

Thanks to rollar for additional sales and mindacos for clarifying some of the history.

Mindacos' explanation of the non-matching histories in sales 2 and 3 can be found here: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/562712e8ba8d88e663a94aed#comment-564cc758b98d882207e94fe9

Feedback welcome