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Yeah, there was a death at the disco. A horrible one.
Quite limited proof, but I'll just take a swing at it, since someone's pestering the fuck out of me to price this.
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Sale #1:
No Advertisement - Sold for a Burning Flames Party Phantom (140) + Sweets (28)
140 + 28 = 168 * 0.9 = 151 Keys (Rounding to 150)
Sale Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120188084?time=1447228800&compare=1447142400 (You're gonna need Julia's plugin.)
(Outlier, due to Sale 3's buyout.)
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Sale #2:
No Advertisement - 1:1 for It's a Mystery version.
(Unable to take price. No other sales.)
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Sale #3:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27385677 - Sold for Molten Mallard Modest Pile of Hat (??) + 9 Keys + 1 Key of Sweets.
**(Unable to find a mini for the Mallard. Taking old price of 97.5 Keys)
Buyout of 120 keys.
97.5 + 1 = 98.5 * 0.9 = 88.65 + 9 = 97.65 (Rounding to 100 for neatness.)
Sale Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031617271?time=1447142400&compare=1447228800
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Support:
https://gyazo.com/851b48bce9b02dfce666a6e2dc145601 - On SCM for $270. (110 Keys)
If you need a mini on the Mystery version of the Neptune's, I've collected one for you. The Mystery version was recently traded alongside a Blizzardy Killer's Kabuto (~33 Keys) for a Haunted Ghosts Bonk Boy. (~140). After overpay that puts the hat right in the 100 range.
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065490677?time=1446883200
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065490677?time=1446969600
Sales look good! I'll give my vote. :D
Scootaloo, this time i will only tell whats wrong on this, dont hate, appreciate.
I checked the sale, this mini is not valid. Bonk boy is duped and it got really old price. I had troubles sell my duped one some time ago for 100 keys.
Oh damn, I didn't even see that the Bonk was duped. Okay, ignore the mini. ^-^
Yeah, atleast you tried! :P
Then report the scammer. If the hat was still with the scammer I would understand your comment, but its not, so this is just spam.~ now let it go, both of you.
I'm unsure about excluding 150. The buyout of 120 wasn't even up for that long - it doesn't necessarily mean much. And SCM, well... no one can explain SCM half the time.
Anyway, some more sales...
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095752814?time=1448524800 (November 26th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095752814?time=1448611200 (November 27th)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27488058 - sold for Bliz. DCO (outdated at 58) + Smoking TC (40) + T-Watt Minnesota Slick (17) + S. Pro. Rocket Launcher (~12?) = 127 * 0.9 = ~114, this is without a DCO mini though. would be supportive if a range of 100-150 was used.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095478651?time=1448352000 (November 24th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095478651?time=1448702932 (November 28th)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27461327 - looks like it sold for 80 keys. nice save, might still be low tho
looks good upvote, its a newer item so theres still good enough proof
What about this? http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112138787?time=1448524800&compare=1448438400
Could you grab me a screenshot? I'm currently in the process of reformatting my computer and don't have Julia's mod on.
https://i.gyazo.com/90be7033c258a8c2d612622d93c85031.png
I would need to see which hat was traded.
It seems it was sold 1:1 for the Strange Death by Disco Neptune's Nightmare... the only hats dont match bpt.f history
seems legit enough unless someone can find proof that some of those were traded for something else, but it doesn't look like it.
Just purchased one for 100 keys buyout.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27525077
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/566cc703dea9e9421b7f7676 - Open suggestion for the Modest.
((84 + 1) X 0.9) + 9 = 86. Resuggest at that.
I guess I'll add some extra evidence here.
Sold for 100 Keys ~100 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084130751?time=1449388800
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084130751?time=1449475200
Sold for Sunbeams Bicorne ~85 Keys (?)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084130751?time=1448438400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084130751?time=1448870400
Sold for Scorching Facehugger (~110 Keys) w/ Whirlwind Laugh Taunt (~50 Keys) + Sweets (~15 Keys) ~Outlier
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106144024?time=1448784000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106144024?time=1448870400
Sold for Duped Blizzardy Cold Killer (~50 Keys) + 35 Keys ~85 Keys (?)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068090261?time=1448611200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068090261?time=1448697600
Sold for Blizzardy DCO (~50 Keys) + Smoking TC (36 Keys) + TW Slick (~15 Keys) + Sweets (~10 Keys) ~100 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095752814?time=1448524800
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095752814?time=1448611200
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27473401 - B/O @ 100 Keys
Sold for 80 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095478651?time=1448352000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095478651?time=1448702932
As Jack has said, sale 3 has changed to ~85 Keys, so I guess a 80-100 Keys range would be better here.
Given the pure sales I actually would price the modest using this instead of the other way around. Regardless, this will still need a range.