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~280 keys
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Unusual Neptune's Nightmare Death by Disco
128 votes up
11 votes down
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Comments

Yeah, there was a death at the disco. A horrible one.


Quite limited proof, but I'll just take a swing at it, since someone's pestering the fuck out of me to price this.


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Sale #1:

No Advertisement - Sold for a Burning Flames Party Phantom (140) + Sweets (28)


140 + 28 = 168 * 0.9 = 151 Keys (Rounding to 150)


Sale Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120188084?time=1447228800&compare=1447142400 (You're gonna need Julia's plugin.)


(Outlier, due to Sale 3's buyout.)


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Sale #2:

No Advertisement - 1:1 for It's a Mystery version.


(Unable to take price. No other sales.)


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Sale #3:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27385677 - Sold for Molten Mallard Modest Pile of Hat (??) + 9 Keys + 1 Key of Sweets.

**(Unable to find a mini for the Mallard. Taking old price of 97.5 Keys)

Buyout of 120 keys.


97.5 + 1 = 98.5 * 0.9 = 88.65 + 9 = 97.65 (Rounding to 100 for neatness.)


Sale Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031617271?time=1447142400&compare=1447228800


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Support:

https://gyazo.com/851b48bce9b02dfce666a6e2dc145601 - On SCM for $270. (110 Keys)

    If you need a mini on the Mystery version of the Neptune's, I've collected one for you. The Mystery version was recently traded alongside a Blizzardy Killer's Kabuto (~33 Keys) for a Haunted Ghosts Bonk Boy. (~140). After overpay that puts the hat right in the 100 range.


    Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065490677?time=1446883200

    After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065490677?time=1446969600


    Sales look good! I'll give my vote. :D

        Scootaloo, this time i will only tell whats wrong on this, dont hate, appreciate.

        I checked the sale, this mini is not valid. Bonk boy is duped and it got really old price. I had troubles sell my duped one some time ago for 100 keys.

          Oh damn, I didn't even see that the Bonk was duped. Okay, ignore the mini. ^-^

            Then report the scammer. If the hat was still with the scammer I would understand your comment, but its not, so this is just spam.~ now let it go, both of you.

          I'm unsure about excluding 150. The buyout of 120 wasn't even up for that long - it doesn't necessarily mean much. And SCM, well... no one can explain SCM half the time.

          Anyway, some more sales...


          http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095752814?time=1448524800 (November 26th)

          http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095752814?time=1448611200 (November 27th)

          http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27488058 - sold for Bliz. DCO (outdated at 58) + Smoking TC (40) + T-Watt Minnesota Slick (17) + S. Pro. Rocket Launcher (~12?) = 127 * 0.9 = ~114, this is without a DCO mini though. would be supportive if a range of 100-150 was used.


          http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095478651?time=1448352000 (November 24th)

          http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095478651?time=1448702932 (November 28th)

          http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27461327 - looks like it sold for 80 keys. nice save, might still be low tho

            looks good upvote, its a newer item so theres still good enough proof

              Just purchased one for 100 keys buyout.

              http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27525077

                http://backpack.tf/vote/id/566cc703dea9e9421b7f7676 - Open suggestion for the Modest.


                ((84 + 1) X 0.9) + 9 = 86. Resuggest at that.

                  I guess I'll add some extra evidence here.


                  Sold for 100 Keys ~100 Keys

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084130751?time=1449388800

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084130751?time=1449475200


                  Sold for Sunbeams Bicorne ~85 Keys (?)

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084130751?time=1448438400

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084130751?time=1448870400


                  Sold for Scorching Facehugger (~110 Keys) w/ Whirlwind Laugh Taunt (~50 Keys) + Sweets (~15 Keys) ~Outlier

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106144024?time=1448784000

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106144024?time=1448870400


                  Sold for Duped Blizzardy Cold Killer (~50 Keys) + 35 Keys ~85 Keys (?)

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068090261?time=1448611200

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068090261?time=1448697600


                  Sold for Blizzardy DCO (~50 Keys) + Smoking TC (36 Keys) + TW Slick (~15 Keys) + Sweets (~10 Keys) ~100 Keys

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095752814?time=1448524800

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095752814?time=1448611200

                  http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27473401 - B/O @ 100 Keys


                  Sold for 80 Keys

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095478651?time=1448352000

                  http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095478651?time=1448702932


                  As Jack has said, sale 3 has changed to ~85 Keys, so I guess a 80-100 Keys range would be better here.

                    Given the pure sales I actually would price the modest using this instead of the other way around. Regardless, this will still need a range.