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Tightening the Range
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27400247 - 5.66 Ref - 12 Days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27441674 - 5.33 Ref - 5 Days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27458415 - 5.33 Ref - 1 Day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27443668 - 5 Ref - Has multiple, Sold a few
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27428364 - 3.33 Ref - 7 Days???
Classifieds:
http://imgur.com/a/3xydA
x2 4.33 Ref (Young/Unbumped)
x3 4.66 Ref
x6 5 Ref
x1 5.11 Ref
x2 5.33 Ref
Conclusion:
Tightening the range, no sellers at 4.55 Ref but there are unsolds at 4.66 Ref in the classifieds for > 5 Days. Ignoring the 3.33 seller as there are buyers for higher. Still possible to sell at 5 Ref so taking a range of 4.66-5 Ref.