Tightening the Range

Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27400247 - 5.66 Ref - 12 Days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27441674 - 5.33 Ref - 5 Days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27458415 - 5.33 Ref - 1 Day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27443668 - 5 Ref - Has multiple, Sold a few

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27428364 - 3.33 Ref - 7 Days???

Classifieds:

http://imgur.com/a/3xydA

x2 4.33 Ref (Young/Unbumped)

x3 4.66 Ref

x6 5 Ref

x1 5.11 Ref

x2 5.33 Ref

Conclusion:

Tightening the range, no sellers at 4.55 Ref but there are unsolds at 4.66 Ref in the classifieds for > 5 Days. Ignoring the 3.33 seller as there are buyers for higher. Still possible to sell at 5 Ref so taking a range of 4.66-5 Ref.