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I found a sale.
3 actually.
Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27352224 - Quicksold for 4 Keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27317961 - 2 for 4 Keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27421535 - Sold for 1 Bud (2.4) + Genuine Quackenbirdt (0.7) + S. KS Rocket (0.6) = ~3..3 Keys after Overpay
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119011569?time=1446796800
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119011569?time=1447920000
Classifieds
http://imgur.com/qcZiAYU - All are young except Darkly (3 Days) and trade.tf (8 Days)
Sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27471092 - 3.3 Keys (Young)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27453762 - 3.3 Keys (3 Days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27451474 - 3.3 Keys (3 Days)
Classifieds
http://imgur.com/YuV5ZKE - Unbumped, 3 Days, Unbumped, Unbumped, 2 Days, Gifted and Unbumped, Unbumped, 12 Days, (then 4+ Keys)
Another Sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27497924 - Sold for 4 Keys
http://puu.sh/lFqcW/73ec2f213d.png idk 4 keys seems like an outlier more like 3-3.3
http://imgur.com/kuJpQF5
Unbumped (fatal), Young (Sugar), Young + Unbumped (Pyotoru), 2 Days (Yours), 3 Days (Rez), Gifted + Unbumped (sT1n9er), Young + Unbumped (Jokler)
http://imgur.com/ShOY2x5
9 Days (CG), 8 Days (Beard), 4 Days (Shiny
Most of the 3 - 3.3 Sellers are unusable.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27428061 sale at 3 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27471092 seller at 3 keys 6 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27533763 seller at 3 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27525625 bp.tf price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27498007 bp.tf price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27315988 3 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27535479 20 keys omg
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27503516 multiple at 3 keys
these are from like the first page and a half of outpost
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27428061 sale at 3 keys (2 Week Old Trade. It sold when?)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27471092 seller at 3 keys 6 ref (3.3 Keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27533763 seller at 3 keys (Young)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27525625 bp.tf price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27498007 bp.tf price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27315988 3 keys (Only 22 Views? I think it's hardly bumped)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27535479 20 keys omg (Irrelevant)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27503516 multiple at 3 keys (14 Views? Possibly hardly bumped)
(7th Line)
8 Keys*
It was 20 at the time of commenting. Either way, it's an irrelevant trade :P
I still think that, regardless of how old the trades are, 4 keys isnt a common enough trading point to establish a range from
I've just bought one for 3, downvote.
4 keys honestly isn't a common trading point. Mine went unsold at 3 keys flat for 3 days before I sold it off as sweets in a deal